bayesRatings

Mariners at Twins

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 29 · 12:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final SEA 5 – MIN 3
← MLB / Apr 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA001000103570
MIN0002000103120
Team box
SEA·MIN
7
hits
12
1
home runs
0
5
walks
3
10
strikeouts
10
168
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole YoungSEA2-4103
J.P. CrawfordSEA2-3111
Brooks LeeMIN2-4002
Victor CaratiniMIN1-1001
Trevor LarnachMIN2-3000
Kody ClemensMIN2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
George KirbySEA5.28225
Cooper Criswell (W)SEA0.10000
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.00002
Taj BradleyMIN7.04227
Eric Orze (L)MIN0.12321

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 1 · SEA 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 53%, MIN 47% · Updated Apr 29

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 4.9 – 4.3 MIN
Expected total
9.2
MarinersThe matchupTwins
−112Our fair odds+112
4.9Expected runs4.3
+0.08Power rating−0.12
4.2Runs / game4.8
4.0Allowed / game4.8
7.8Hits / game7.6
1.06Home runs / game1.20
3.9Walks drawn / game4.2
15−16Season record13−17
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · MIN chance
Our model fair52.7%47.3%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−11253%−13757.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+11247%+11446.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.6
SEASeattle Mariners−0.6our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.6 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byMIN wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more42%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more32%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·MIN
Apr 28 at MIN
last game
Apr 28 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
SEA·MIN
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.2
runs / game
4.8
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.8
15−16
season record
13−17
10−7
home record
8−7
5−9
away record
5−10
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
2−8
7.8
hits / game
7.6
1.06
home runs / game
1.20
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.39
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

SEA · MIN · 35 days
Seattle MarinersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Apr 28at MINSEA 7 − 1
Apr 27at MINMIN 11 − 4
Jun 26, 2025at MINMIN 10 − 1
Jun 25, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at MINSEA 6 − 5
Jun 23, 2025at MINSEA 11 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
May 31, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 4
May 30, 2025at SEAMIN 12 − 6
Jun 30, 2024at SEAMIN 5 − 3

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 28at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 27at MIN4 − 11L
Apr 26at STL3 − 2W
Apr 25at STL11 − 9W
Apr 24at STL3 − 2W
Apr 22vs ATH5 − 4W
Apr 21vs ATH2 − 5L
Apr 20vs ATH4 − 6L
Apr 19vs TEX5 − 2W
Apr 18vs TEX7 − 3W

MIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Apr 28vs SEA1 − 7L
Apr 27vs SEA11 − 4W
Apr 26at TB2 − 4L
Apr 25at TB1 − 6L
Apr 24at TB2 − 6L
Apr 23at NYM8 − 10L
Apr 22at NYM2 − 3L
Apr 21at NYM5 − 3W
Apr 19vs CIN4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CIN4 − 5L