bayesRatings

Mariners at Twins

MLB · Monday, Apr 27 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final SEA 4 – MIN 11
← MLB / Apr 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000020020450
MIN0142010311120
Team box
SEA·MIN
5
hits
12
1
home runs
2
5
walks
7
7
strikeouts
7
179
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kody ClemensMIN2-5115
Byron BuxtonMIN1-4112
Cal RaleighSEA1-4112
Ryan JeffersMIN2-4202
Trevor LarnachMIN2-4101
Luke KeaschallMIN2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Castillo (L)SEA5.07723
Connor Prielipp (W)MIN5.01235

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +7
SEA +7
123456789
largest lead: MIN 7 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 53%, MIN 47% · Updated Apr 27

Expected margin
SEA by 0.7
Expected score
SEA 4.9 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
9.1
MarinersThe matchupTwins
−113Our fair odds+113
4.9Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating−0.12
4.1Runs / game4.7
3.9Allowed / game4.7
7.7Hits / game7.5
1.07Home runs / game1.18
3.9Walks drawn / game4.2
14−15Season record12−16
6−4Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · MIN chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−11353%−12655.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+11347%+10548.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.7
SEASeattle Mariners−0.7our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.7 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 17%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byMIN wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more43%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more32%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 1 start: 4.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·MIN
Apr 26 at STL
last game
Apr 26 at TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
SEA·MIN
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.1
runs / game
4.7
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.7
14−15
season record
12−16
10−7
home record
7−6
4−8
away record
5−10
W4
streak
L5
6−4
last 10
1−9
7.7
hits / game
7.5
1.07
home runs / game
1.18
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.38
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

SEA · MIN · 33 days
Seattle MarinersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Jun 26, 2025at MINMIN 10 − 1
Jun 25, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at MINSEA 6 − 5
Jun 23, 2025at MINSEA 11 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
May 31, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 4
May 30, 2025at SEAMIN 12 − 6
Jun 30, 2024at SEAMIN 5 − 3
Jun 29, 2024at SEAMIN 5 − 1
Jun 28, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 2

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Apr 26at STL3 − 2W
Apr 25at STL11 − 9W
Apr 24at STL3 − 2W
Apr 22vs ATH5 − 4W
Apr 21vs ATH2 − 5L
Apr 20vs ATH4 − 6L
Apr 19vs TEX5 − 2W
Apr 18vs TEX7 − 3W
Apr 17vs TEX0 − 5L
Apr 16at SD2 − 5L

MIN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Apr 26at TB2 − 4L
Apr 25at TB1 − 6L
Apr 24at TB2 − 6L
Apr 23at NYM8 − 10L
Apr 22at NYM2 − 3L
Apr 21at NYM5 − 3W
Apr 19vs CIN4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CIN4 − 5L
Apr 17vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 15vs BOS5 − 9L