bayesRatings

Guardians at Royals

MLB · Tuesday, May 5 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final CLE 3 – KC 5
← MLB / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000300000340
KC20020100580
Team box
CLE·KC
4
hits
8
1
home runs
2
2
walks
2
5
strikeouts
10
123
pitches thrown
120
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rhys HoskinsCLE1-3113
Isaac CollinsKC3-3211
Michael MasseyKC2-3112
Salvador PerezKC1-4002
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-4100
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gavin Williams (L)CLE6.08527
Stephen Kolek (W)KC6.04303
Lucas Erceg (S)KC1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 2 · CLE 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 49%, KC 51% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.1 – 3.7 CLE
Expected total
7.8
GuardiansThe matchupRoyals
+104Our fair odds−104
3.7Expected runs4.1
+0.05Power rating+0.00
4.1Runs / game4.2
4.3Allowed / game4.5
7.6Hits / game8.0
1.03Home runs / game1.00
3.9Walks drawn / game3.6
18−18Season record16−19
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · KC chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10449%−11653.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10451%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.4our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more39%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more28%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 24 Kstarted
KCStephen Kolek SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·KC
May 4 at KC
last game
May 4 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
CLE·KC
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.1
runs / game
4.2
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
18−18
season record
16−19
9−7
home record
10−7
9−11
away record
6−12
L2
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.6
hits / game
8.0
1.03
home runs / game
1.00
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.47
errors / game
0.26

Rating Trend

CLE · KC · 41 days
Cleveland GuardiansKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 4−6
May 4at KCKC 6 − 2
Apr 8at CLECLE 10 − 2
Apr 7at CLECLE 2 − 1
Apr 6at CLEKC 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at CLEKC 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at CLECLE 2 − 0
Sep 8, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 2
Jul 27, 2025at KCKC 4 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at KCCLE 6 − 4

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 4at KC2 − 6L
May 3at ATH1 − 7L
May 2at ATH14 − 6W
May 1at ATH8 − 5W
Apr 29vs TB3 − 1W
Apr 28vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 27vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 26at TOR2 − 4L
Apr 25at TOR3 − 5L
Apr 24at TOR8 − 6W

KC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
May 4vs CLE6 − 2W
May 3at SEA4 − 1W
May 2at SEA3 − 2W
May 1at SEA7 − 6W
Apr 30at ATH3 − 6L
Apr 29at ATH2 − 5L
Apr 28at ATH4 − 1W
Apr 26vs LAA11 − 9W
Apr 25vs LAA12 − 1W
Apr 24vs LAA6 − 3W