bayesRatings

Guardians at Royals

MLB · Monday, May 4 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final CLE 2 – KC 6
← MLB / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE020000000251
KC00040110670
Team box
CLE·KC
5
hits
7
1
home runs
2
1
walks
4
3
strikeouts
7
150
pitches thrown
95
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
David FryCLE2-3112
Bobby Witt Jr.KC1-4211
Jac CaglianoneKC1-3111
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-4101
Nick LoftinKC1-4002
Salvador PerezKC1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner Bibee (L)CLE4.05424
Michael Wacha (W)KC7.04213

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +4
CLE +4
123456789
largest lead: KC 4 · CLE 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, KC 50% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.0 – 3.8 CLE
Expected total
7.8
GuardiansThe matchupRoyals
+102Our fair odds−102
3.8Expected runs4.0
+0.06Power rating−0.01
4.2Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.6
7.7Hits / game8.0
1.03Home runs / game0.97
4.0Walks drawn / game3.6
18−17Season record15−19
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · KC chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10250%−10350.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10250%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.3our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more38%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more27%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 14 Kstarted
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·KC
May 3 at ATH
last game
May 3 at SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
CLE·KC
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.2
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
18−17
season record
15−19
9−7
home record
9−7
9−10
away record
6−12
L1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
8.0
1.03
home runs / game
0.97
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.46
errors / game
0.26

Rating Trend

CLE · KC · 40 days
Cleveland GuardiansKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 4−6
Apr 8at CLECLE 10 − 2
Apr 7at CLECLE 2 − 1
Apr 6at CLEKC 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at CLEKC 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at CLECLE 2 − 0
Sep 8, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 2
Jul 27, 2025at KCKC 4 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at KCCLE 6 − 4
Jul 26, 2025at KCKC 5 − 3

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 3at ATH1 − 7L
May 2at ATH14 − 6W
May 1at ATH8 − 5W
Apr 29vs TB3 − 1W
Apr 28vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 27vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 26at TOR2 − 4L
Apr 25at TOR3 − 5L
Apr 24at TOR8 − 6W
Apr 22vs HOU0 − 2L

KC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
May 3at SEA4 − 1W
May 2at SEA3 − 2W
May 1at SEA7 − 6W
Apr 30at ATH3 − 6L
Apr 29at ATH2 − 5L
Apr 28at ATH4 − 1W
Apr 26vs LAA11 − 9W
Apr 25vs LAA12 − 1W
Apr 24vs LAA6 − 3W
Apr 22vs BAL6 − 8L