bayesRatings

Guardians at Royals

MLB · Thursday, May 7 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final CLE 8 – KC 5
← MLB / May 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE3010013008110
KC0000112105120
Team box
CLE·KC
11
hits
12
1
home runs
2
8
walks
5
11
strikeouts
7
162
pitches thrown
204
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bo NaylorCLE2-5113
Bobby Witt Jr.KC4-4111
Vinnie PasquantinoKC1-5111
Kyle ManzardoCLE1-5102
Maikel GarciaKC2-5001
Brayan RocchioCLE2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Slade Cecconi (W)CLE5.16233
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00002
Seth Lugo (L)KC4.07445

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +6
CLE +6
123456789
largest lead: KC 0 · CLE 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 49%, KC 51% · Updated May 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.0 – 3.6 CLE
Expected total
7.7
GuardiansThe matchupRoyals
+103Our fair odds−103
3.6Expected runs4.0
+0.05Power rating−0.00
4.1Runs / game4.1
4.2Allowed / game4.5
7.5Hits / game7.9
1.00Home runs / game1.00
3.9Walks drawn / game3.6
19−19Season record17−20
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · KC chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10349%+10548.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10351%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.4our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 19%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more39%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more28%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 8.44 ERA, 10 Kstarted
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 4.19 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·KC
May 6 at KC
last game
May 6 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
CLE·KC
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.1
runs / game
4.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.5
19−19
season record
17−20
9−7
home record
11−8
10−12
away record
6−12
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.5
hits / game
7.9
1.00
home runs / game
1.00
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.45
errors / game
0.27

Rating Trend

CLE · KC · 43 days
Cleveland GuardiansKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 4−6
May 6at KCCLE 3 − 1
May 5at KCKC 5 − 3
May 4at KCKC 6 − 2
Apr 8at CLECLE 10 − 2
Apr 7at CLECLE 2 − 1
Apr 6at CLEKC 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at CLEKC 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at CLECLE 2 − 0
Sep 8, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 2

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 6at KC3 − 1W
May 5at KC3 − 5L
May 4at KC2 − 6L
May 3at ATH1 − 7L
May 2at ATH14 − 6W
May 1at ATH8 − 5W
Apr 29vs TB3 − 1W
Apr 28vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 27vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 26at TOR2 − 4L

KC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 6vs CLE1 − 3L
May 5vs CLE5 − 3W
May 4vs CLE6 − 2W
May 3at SEA4 − 1W
May 2at SEA3 − 2W
May 1at SEA7 − 6W
Apr 30at ATH3 − 6L
Apr 29at ATH2 − 5L
Apr 28at ATH4 − 1W
Apr 26vs LAA11 − 9W