bayesRatings

Tigers at Mets

MLB · Wednesday, May 13 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final DET 2 – NYM 3
← MLB / May 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
DET2000000000280
NYM0100001001371
Team box
DET·NYM
8
hits
7
0
home runs
0
5
walks
2
10
strikeouts
12
144
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Riley GreeneDET3-5002
Carson BengeNYM3-5001
Dillon DinglerDET2-5100
Bo BichetteNYM1-4001
Zach McKinstryDET1-4000
Colt KeithDET1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Framber ValdezDET6.25227
Drew Anderson (L)DET0.11001
Christian ScottNYM4.27225
Brooks Raley (W)NYM1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
DET +3
12345678910
largest lead: NYM 1 · DET 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 50%, NYM 50% · Updated May 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.3 – 4.3 DET
Expected total
8.6
TigersThe matchupMets
+101Our fair odds−101
4.3Expected runs4.3
+0.02Power rating−0.05
4.2Runs / game3.6
4.3Allowed / game4.2
8.1Hits / game7.5
0.90Home runs / game0.76
3.8Walks drawn / game3.0
19−23Season record16−25
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · NYM chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10150%+10149.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−10150%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit TigersPKour margin————
NYMNew York MetsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more36%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more26%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 7.42 ERA, 15 Kstarted
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 3.27 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·NYM
May 12 at NYM
last game
May 12 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
DET·NYM
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.2
runs / game
3.6
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.2
19−23
season record
16−25
12−6
home record
7−12
7−17
away record
9−13
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
7.5
0.90
home runs / game
0.76
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.60
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

DET · NYM · 49 days
Detroit TigersNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
May 12at NYMNYM 10 − 2
Sep 3, 2025at DETDET 6 − 2
Sep 2, 2025at DETNYM 12 − 5
Sep 1, 2025at DETNYM 10 − 8
Apr 4, 2024at NYMNYM 2 − 1
Apr 4, 2024at NYMDET 6 − 3
Apr 1, 2024at NYMDET 5 − 0
May 4, 2023at DETDET 2 − 0
May 3, 2023at DETDET 8 − 1
May 3, 2023at DETDET 6 − 5

DET · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 12at NYM2 − 10L
May 10at KC6 − 3W
May 9at KC1 − 5L
May 8at KC3 − 4L
May 6vs BOS0 − 4L
May 5vs BOS3 − 10L
May 4vs BOS4 − 5L
May 3vs TEX7 − 1W
May 2vs TEX5 − 1W
May 1vs TEX4 − 5L

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 12vs DET10 − 2W
May 10at ARI1 − 5L
May 9at ARI1 − 2L
May 8at ARI3 − 1W
May 7at COL2 − 6L
May 6at COL10 − 5W
May 4at COL4 − 2W
May 3at LAA5 − 1W
May 2at LAA3 − 4L
May 1at LAA4 − 3W