bayesRatings

Mets at Diamondbacks

MLB · Friday, May 8 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final NYM 3 – ARI 1
← MLB / May 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
NYM0100000002350
ARI0100000000150
Team box
NYM·ARI
5
hits
5
1
home runs
1
1
walks
3
10
strikeouts
10
153
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mark VientosNYM2-4112
Nolan ArenadoARI1-4111
Carson BengeNYM1-3001
Ildemaro VargasARI1-5000
Corbin CarrollARI1-3000
Jose FernandezARI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nolan McLeanNYM6.03116
Devin Williams (W)NYM1.00001
Tobias Myers (S)NYM1.00002
Ryne NelsonARI6.22117
Kevin Ginkel (L)ARI0.13101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
NYM +3
12345678910
largest lead: ARI 0 · NYM 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 47%, ARI 53% · Updated May 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 5.0 – 4.9 ARI
Expected total
9.8
MetsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+114Our fair odds−114
5.0Expected runs4.9
−0.07Power rating−0.01
3.6Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game5.2
7.6Hits / game8.0
0.81Home runs / game0.97
3.0Walks drawn / game2.8
14−23Season record17−19
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · ARI chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11447%−12655.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11453%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets−0.1our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byARI wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more38%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more29%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 23 Kstarted
ARIRyne Nelson SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 12.27 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·ARI
May 7 at COL
last game
May 7 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
NYM·ARI
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
3.6
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.2
14−23
season record
17−19
6−12
home record
10−8
8−11
away record
7−11
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.6
hits / game
8.0
0.81
home runs / game
0.97
3.0
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.46
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

NYM · ARI · 44 days
New York MetsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Apr 9at NYMARI 7 − 1
Apr 8at NYMARI 7 − 2
Apr 7at NYMNYM 4 − 3
May 7, 2025at ARINYM 7 − 1
May 6, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 1
May 5, 2025at ARINYM 5 − 4
May 1, 2025at NYMARI 4 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at NYMARI 4 − 3
Apr 29, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 3
Aug 29, 2024at ARINYM 3 − 2

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 7at COL2 − 6L
May 6at COL10 − 5W
May 4at COL4 − 2W
May 3at LAA5 − 1W
May 2at LAA3 − 4L
May 1at LAA4 − 3W
Apr 30vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 29vs WSH2 − 14L
Apr 28vs WSH8 − 0W
Apr 26vs COL0 − 3L

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 7vs PIT2 − 4L
May 6vs PIT0 − 1L
May 5vs PIT9 − 0W
May 3at CHC4 − 8L
May 2at CHC0 − 2L
May 1at CHC5 − 6L
Apr 30at MIL1 − 13L
Apr 29at MIL6 − 2W
Apr 28at MIL2 − 13L
Apr 26vs SD12 − 7W