bayesRatings

Pirates at Diamondbacks

MLB · Tuesday, May 5 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final PIT 0 – ARI 9
← MLB / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000000000020
ARI20000502990
Team box
PIT·ARI
2
hits
9
0
home runs
0
3
walks
7
9
strikeouts
4
161
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ketel MarteARI2-5202
Geraldo PerdomoARI1-4102
Adrian Del CastilloARI1-4002
Gabriel MorenoARI2-4101
Ildemaro VargasARI1-5001
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI1-1100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bubba Chandler (L)PIT5.02264
Eduardo Rodriguez (W)ARI7.02037

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +9
PIT +9
123456789
largest lead: ARI 9 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 48%, ARI 52% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 5.1 – 4.8 ARI
Expected total
9.8
PiratesThe matchupDiamondbacks
+107Our fair odds−107
5.1Expected runs4.8
+0.00Power rating−0.01
5.1Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game5.5
8.8Hits / game8.2
1.09Home runs / game1.03
4.1Walks drawn / game2.6
19−16Season record16−17
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · ARI chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10748%+11446.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10752%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.3our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byARI wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more40%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more30%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·ARI
May 3 vs CIN
last game
May 3 at CHC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
PIT·ARI
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.1
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.5
19−16
season record
16−17
11−9
home record
9−6
8−7
away record
7−11
W3
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.8
hits / game
8.2
1.09
home runs / game
1.03
4.1
walks drawn / game
2.6
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.3
0.60
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

PIT · ARI · 41 days
Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 4−6
Jul 27, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 0
Jul 26, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 0
Jul 25, 2025at PITARI 1 − 0
May 28, 2025at ARIPIT 10 − 1
May 27, 2025at ARIPIT 9 − 6
May 26, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 0
Aug 4, 2024at PITARI 6 − 5
Aug 3, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 2
Aug 2, 2024at PITARI 9 − 8
Jul 28, 2024at ARIPIT 6 − 5

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
May 3vs CIN1 − 0W
May 2vs CIN17 − 7W
May 1vs CIN9 − 1W
Apr 30vs STL5 − 10L
Apr 29vs STL4 − 5L
Apr 28vs STL7 − 11L
Apr 27vs STL2 − 4L
Apr 26at MIL0 − 5L
Apr 25at MIL6 − 3W
Apr 24at MIL6 − 0W

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
May 3at CHC4 − 8L
May 2at CHC0 − 2L
May 1at CHC5 − 6L
Apr 30at MIL1 − 13L
Apr 29at MIL6 − 2W
Apr 28at MIL2 − 13L
Apr 26vs SD12 − 7W
Apr 25vs SD4 − 6L
Apr 23vs CHW1 − 4L
Apr 22vs CHW11 − 7W