bayesRatings

White Sox at Diamondbacks

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final CHW 7 – ARI 11
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW2011012007110
ARI0422021011160
Team box
CHW·ARI
11
hits
16
3
home runs
3
5
walks
6
8
strikeouts
5
204
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ildemaro VargasARI2-5225
Nolan ArenadoARI4-4313
Munetaka MurakamiCHW3-5112
Miguel VargasCHW2-4311
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-5112
Geraldo PerdomoARI3-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Anthony Kay (L)CHW3.28831
Eduardo Rodriguez (W)ARI5.06434

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +5
CHW +5
123456789
largest lead: ARI 5 · CHW 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 40%, ARI 60% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
ARI by 0.7
Expected score
ARI 5.1 – 4.4 CHW
Expected total
9.5
White SoxThe matchupDiamondbacks
+149Our fair odds−149
4.4Expected runs5.1
−0.28Power rating+0.04
4.0Runs / game4.5
5.1Allowed / game4.9
7.2Hits / game8.0
1.22Home runs / game0.87
4.0Walks drawn / game2.5
9−14Season record13−10
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · ARI chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+14940%+12943.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−14960%−15460.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.7
CHWChicago White Sox+0.7our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.7 expected
Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 17%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more42%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more32%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 1.17 ERA, 19 Kstarted
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·ARI
Apr 21 at ARI
last game
Apr 21 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
CHW·ARI
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.0
runs / game
4.5
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.9
9−14
season record
13−10
3−6
home record
7−4
6−8
away record
6−6
W2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.2
hits / game
8.0
1.22
home runs / game
0.87
4.0
walks drawn / game
2.5
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.61
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

CHW · ARI · 28 days
Chicago White SoxArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Apr 21at ARICHW 11 − 5
Jun 25, 2025at CHWCHW 7 − 3
Jun 24, 2025at CHWARI 4 − 1
Jun 23, 2025at CHWARI 10 − 0
Jun 16, 2024at ARIARI 12 − 5
Jun 15, 2024at ARICHW 9 − 2
Jun 14, 2024at ARIARI 7 − 1
Sep 28, 2023at CHWCHW 3 − 1
Sep 27, 2023at CHWARI 3 − 0
Sep 26, 2023at CHWARI 15 − 4

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 21at ARI11 − 5W
Apr 19at ATH7 − 4W
Apr 18at ATH6 − 7L
Apr 17at ATH9 − 2W
Apr 16vs TB3 − 5L
Apr 15vs TB3 − 8L
Apr 14vs TB5 − 8L
Apr 12at KC6 − 5W
Apr 11at KC0 − 2L
Apr 10at KC0 − 2L

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 21vs CHW5 − 11L
Apr 19vs TOR4 − 10L
Apr 18vs TOR6 − 2W
Apr 17vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 15at BAL8 − 5W
Apr 14at BAL4 − 3W
Apr 13at BAL7 − 9L
Apr 12at PHI4 − 3W
Apr 11at PHI3 − 4L
Apr 10at PHI5 − 4W