bayesRatings

White Sox at Diamondbacks

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final CHW 11 – ARI 5
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW43001000311140
ARI000110003580
Team box
CHW·ARI
14
hits
8
4
home runs
2
6
walks
7
8
strikeouts
6
170
pitches thrown
182
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colson MontgomeryCHW2-5213
Sam AntonacciCHW2-5113
Ildemaro VargasARI1-4113
Munetaka MurakamiCHW3-5211
Alek ThomasARI2-4111
Miguel VargasCHW1-4211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Burke (W)CHW6.05213
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI4.110835

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +9
CHW +9
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · CHW 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 39%, ARI 61% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
ARI by 0.9
Expected score
ARI 5.1 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
9.3
White SoxThe matchupDiamondbacks
+158Our fair odds−158
4.2Expected runs5.1
−0.32Power rating+0.06
3.7Runs / game4.5
5.1Allowed / game4.6
6.9Hits / game8.0
1.09Home runs / game0.82
3.9Walks drawn / game2.3
8−14Season record13−9
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · ARI chance
Our model fair38.8%61.2%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+15839%+12444.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−15861%−15460.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.9
CHWChicago White Sox+0.9our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.9 expected
Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 17%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more43%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more33%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.65 ERA, 10 Kstarted
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.82 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·ARI
Apr 19 at ATH
last game
Apr 19 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
CHW·ARI
−0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
3.7
runs / game
4.5
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.6
8−14
season record
13−9
3−6
home record
7−3
5−8
away record
6−6
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
7−3
6.9
hits / game
8.0
1.09
home runs / game
0.82
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.3
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.64
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

CHW · ARI · 27 days
Chicago White SoxArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 7−3
Jun 25, 2025at CHWCHW 7 − 3
Jun 24, 2025at CHWARI 4 − 1
Jun 23, 2025at CHWARI 10 − 0
Jun 16, 2024at ARIARI 12 − 5
Jun 15, 2024at ARICHW 9 − 2
Jun 14, 2024at ARIARI 7 − 1
Sep 28, 2023at CHWCHW 3 − 1
Sep 27, 2023at CHWARI 3 − 0
Sep 26, 2023at CHWARI 15 − 4
Aug 28, 2022at CHWARI 3 − 2

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 19at ATH7 − 4W
Apr 18at ATH6 − 7L
Apr 17at ATH9 − 2W
Apr 16vs TB3 − 5L
Apr 15vs TB3 − 8L
Apr 14vs TB5 − 8L
Apr 12at KC6 − 5W
Apr 11at KC0 − 2L
Apr 10at KC0 − 2L
Apr 9at KC2 − 0W

ARI · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 19vs TOR4 − 10L
Apr 18vs TOR6 − 2W
Apr 17vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 15at BAL8 − 5W
Apr 14at BAL4 − 3W
Apr 13at BAL7 − 9L
Apr 12at PHI4 − 3W
Apr 11at PHI3 − 4L
Apr 10at PHI5 − 4W
Apr 9at NYM7 − 1W