bayesRatings

White Sox at Diamondbacks

MLB · Thursday, Apr 23 · 2:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final CHW 4 – ARI 1
← MLB / Apr 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW0010000034100
ARI100000000180
Team box
CHW·ARI
10
hits
8
1
home runs
0
3
walks
1
10
strikeouts
12
135
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andrew BenintendiCHW2-5213
Colson MontgomeryCHW3-4000
Ketel MarteARI2-4100
Adrian Del CastilloARI1-4001
Miguel VargasCHW1-4001
Chase MeidrothCHW2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Davis MartinCHW6.16117
Grant Taylor (W)CHW1.22003
Seranthony Dominguez (S)CHW1.00002
Michael SorokaARI5.07116
Paul Sewald (L)ARI0.21320

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 1 · CHW 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 40%, ARI 60% · Updated Apr 23

Expected margin
ARI by 0.7
Expected score
ARI 5.2 – 4.6 CHW
Expected total
9.8
White SoxThe matchupDiamondbacks
+153Our fair odds−153
4.6Expected runs5.2
−0.30Power rating+0.04
4.2Runs / game4.8
5.4Allowed / game5.0
7.3Hits / game8.3
1.29Home runs / game0.96
4.0Walks drawn / game2.7
9−15Season record14−10
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · ARI chance
Our model fair39.5%60.5%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+15340%+12943.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−15360%−15460.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.7
CHWChicago White Sox+0.7our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.7 expected
Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more42%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more32%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·ARI
Apr 22 at ARI
last game
Apr 22 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
CHW·ARI
−0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.8
5.4
runs allowed / game
5.0
9−15
season record
14−10
3−6
home record
8−4
6−9
away record
6−6
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.3
hits / game
8.3
1.29
home runs / game
0.96
4.0
walks drawn / game
2.7
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.58
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CHW · ARI · 29 days
Chicago White SoxArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Apr 22at ARIARI 11 − 7
Apr 21at ARICHW 11 − 5
Jun 25, 2025at CHWCHW 7 − 3
Jun 24, 2025at CHWARI 4 − 1
Jun 23, 2025at CHWARI 10 − 0
Jun 16, 2024at ARIARI 12 − 5
Jun 15, 2024at ARICHW 9 − 2
Jun 14, 2024at ARIARI 7 − 1
Sep 28, 2023at CHWCHW 3 − 1
Sep 27, 2023at CHWARI 3 − 0

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 22at ARI7 − 11L
Apr 21at ARI11 − 5W
Apr 19at ATH7 − 4W
Apr 18at ATH6 − 7L
Apr 17at ATH9 − 2W
Apr 16vs TB3 − 5L
Apr 15vs TB3 − 8L
Apr 14vs TB5 − 8L
Apr 12at KC6 − 5W
Apr 11at KC0 − 2L

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 22vs CHW11 − 7W
Apr 21vs CHW5 − 11L
Apr 19vs TOR4 − 10L
Apr 18vs TOR6 − 2W
Apr 17vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 15at BAL8 − 5W
Apr 14at BAL4 − 3W
Apr 13at BAL7 − 9L
Apr 12at PHI4 − 3W
Apr 11at PHI3 − 4L