bayesRatings

Pirates at Brewers

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final PIT 0 – MIL 5
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000000000021
MIL00050000571
Team box
PIT·MIL
2
hits
7
0
home runs
0
4
walks
2
18
strikeouts
7
145
pitches thrown
168
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LockridgeMIL1-2002
Gary SanchezMIL1-4001
Jake BauersMIL2-4100
Luis RengifoMIL1-3101
David HamiltonMIL1-3101
William ContrerasMIL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carmen Mlodzinski (L)PIT3.25414
Kyle Harrison (W)MIL6.010112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +5
PIT +5
123456789
largest lead: MIL 5 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 44%, MIL 56% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
MIL by 1.0
Expected score
MIL 4.6 – 3.6 PIT
Expected total
8.2
PiratesThe matchupBrewers
+128Our fair odds−128
3.6Expected runs4.6
+0.01Power rating+0.18
5.0Runs / game4.9
3.9Allowed / game4.3
8.6Hits / game7.7
1.07Home runs / game0.73
3.9Walks drawn / game4.8
16−11Season record13−13
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · MIL chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12844%+10149.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−12856%−12655.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.0
PITPittsburgh Pirates+1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.0 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 17%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more45%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more34%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITCarmen Mlodzinski RP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·MIL
Apr 25 at MIL
last game
Apr 25 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
PIT·MIL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
5.0
runs / game
4.9
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.3
16−11
season record
13−13
8−5
home record
7−7
8−6
away record
6−6
W2
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
7.7
1.07
home runs / game
0.73
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.8
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.56
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

PIT · MIL · 32 days
Pittsburgh PiratesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 8−2
Apr 25at MILPIT 6 − 3
Apr 24at MILPIT 6 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at PITMIL 10 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at PITMIL 4 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at PITMIL 5 − 2
Aug 13, 2025at MILMIL 12 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at MILMIL 14 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 1
Jun 25, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 2
Jun 24, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 3

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 25at MIL6 − 3W
Apr 24at MIL6 − 0W
Apr 23at TEX1 − 6L
Apr 22at TEX8 − 4W
Apr 21at TEX1 − 5L
Apr 19vs TB6 − 3W
Apr 18vs TB7 − 8L
Apr 17vs TB5 − 1W
Apr 16vs WSH7 − 8L
Apr 15vs WSH2 − 0W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Apr 25vs PIT3 − 6L
Apr 24vs PIT0 − 6L
Apr 23at DET4 − 5L
Apr 22at DET2 − 5L
Apr 21at DET12 − 4W
Apr 19at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 18at MIA5 − 2W
Apr 17at MIA7 − 5W
Apr 16vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 15vs TOR2 − 1W