bayesRatings

Pirates at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, Apr 25 · 6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final PIT 6 – MIL 3
← MLB / Apr 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
PIT0002010003691
MIL0002010000361
Team box
PIT·MIL
9
hits
6
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
15
strikeouts
11
163
pitches thrown
140
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick GonzalesPIT3-5101
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-4002
Konnor GriffinPIT2-4001
Jake BauersMIL2-5200
Garrett MitchellMIL1-4001
Tyler BlackMIL2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch KellerPIT5.05326
Gregory Soto (W)PIT1.00001
Yohan Ramirez (S)PIT1.00002
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL6.06319
Angel Zerpa (L)MIL0.21111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
PIT +3
12345678910
largest lead: MIL 0 · PIT 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 43%, MIL 57% · Updated Apr 25

Expected margin
MIL by 1.0
Expected score
MIL 4.6 – 3.6 PIT
Expected total
8.2
PiratesThe matchupBrewers
+130Our fair odds−130
3.6Expected runs4.6
+0.01Power rating+0.19
5.0Runs / game5.0
4.0Allowed / game4.3
8.6Hits / game7.7
1.12Home runs / game0.76
3.9Walks drawn / game4.8
15−11Season record13−12
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · MIL chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+13043%+12444.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13057%−14859.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.0
PITPittsburgh Pirates+1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.0 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 17%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more45%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more33%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·MIL
Apr 24 at MIL
last game
Apr 24 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
PIT·MIL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
5.0
runs / game
5.0
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
15−11
season record
13−12
8−5
home record
7−6
7−6
away record
6−6
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
7.7
1.12
home runs / game
0.76
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.8
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.54
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

PIT · MIL · 31 days
Pittsburgh PiratesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 8−2
Apr 24at MILPIT 6 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at PITMIL 10 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at PITMIL 4 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at PITMIL 5 − 2
Aug 13, 2025at MILMIL 12 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at MILMIL 14 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 1
Jun 25, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 2
Jun 24, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 3
Jun 23, 2025at MILPIT 5 − 4

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 24at MIL6 − 0W
Apr 23at TEX1 − 6L
Apr 22at TEX8 − 4W
Apr 21at TEX1 − 5L
Apr 19vs TB6 − 3W
Apr 18vs TB7 − 8L
Apr 17vs TB5 − 1W
Apr 16vs WSH7 − 8L
Apr 15vs WSH2 − 0W
Apr 14vs WSH4 − 5L

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Apr 24vs PIT0 − 6L
Apr 23at DET4 − 5L
Apr 22at DET2 − 5L
Apr 21at DET12 − 4W
Apr 19at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 18at MIA5 − 2W
Apr 17at MIA7 − 5W
Apr 16vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 15vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 14vs TOR7 − 9L