bayesRatings

Pirates at Brewers

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final PIT 6 – MIL 0
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT001111020690
MIL000000000012
Team box
PIT·MIL
9
hits
1
1
home runs
0
3
walks
1
5
strikeouts
9
116
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Konnor GriffinPIT3-4113
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-4200
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-3101
Nick GonzalesPIT1-4101
Jake BauersMIL1-3000
Oneil CruzPIT0-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul Skenes (W)PIT7.01007
Brandon Woodruff (L)MIL5.05323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +6
PIT +6
123456789
largest lead: MIL 0 · PIT 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 42%, MIL 58% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
MIL by 1.1
Expected score
MIL 4.7 – 3.6 PIT
Expected total
8.3
PiratesThe matchupBrewers
+136Our fair odds−136
3.6Expected runs4.7
−0.01Power rating+0.21
4.9Runs / game5.2
4.1Allowed / game4.2
8.6Hits / game8.0
1.12Home runs / game0.79
4.0Walks drawn / game5.0
14−11Season record13−11
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · MIL chance
Our model fair42.4%57.6%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+13642%−11252.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13658%−10751.8%———
SpreadMIL by 1.1
PITPittsburgh Pirates+1.1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.1 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more46%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more34%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.10 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MILBrandon Woodruff SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·MIL
Apr 23 at TEX
last game
Apr 23 at DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
PIT·MIL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
4.9
runs / game
5.2
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.2
14−11
season record
13−11
8−5
home record
7−5
6−6
away record
6−6
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.0
1.12
home runs / game
0.79
4.0
walks drawn / game
5.0
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.56
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

PIT · MIL · 30 days
Pittsburgh PiratesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 9−1
Sep 7, 2025at PITMIL 10 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at PITMIL 4 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at PITMIL 5 − 2
Aug 13, 2025at MILMIL 12 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at MILMIL 14 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 1
Jun 25, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 2
Jun 24, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 3
Jun 23, 2025at MILPIT 5 − 4
May 25, 2025at PITMIL 6 − 5

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 23at TEX1 − 6L
Apr 22at TEX8 − 4W
Apr 21at TEX1 − 5L
Apr 19vs TB6 − 3W
Apr 18vs TB7 − 8L
Apr 17vs TB5 − 1W
Apr 16vs WSH7 − 8L
Apr 15vs WSH2 − 0W
Apr 14vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 13vs WSH16 − 5W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 23at DET4 − 5L
Apr 22at DET2 − 5L
Apr 21at DET12 − 4W
Apr 19at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 18at MIA5 − 2W
Apr 17at MIA7 − 5W
Apr 16vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 15vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 14vs TOR7 − 9L
Apr 12vs WSH6 − 8L