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Diamondbacks at Brewers

MLB · Thursday, Apr 30 · 12:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final ARI 1 – MIL 13
← MLB / Apr 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000100000162
MIL3032031113140
Team box
ARI·MIL
6
hits
14
0
home runs
2
2
walks
6
13
strikeouts
6
169
pitches thrown
131
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL4-4314
Tyler BlackMIL2-4003
Luis RengifoMIL1-5003
Sal FrelickMIL1-5111
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI2-4001
Brice TurangMIL2-3301
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Soroka (L)ARI3.010822
Brandon WoodruffMIL1.11012
Shane Drohan (W)MIL4.05104

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +13
ARI +13
123456789
largest lead: MIL 13 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 44%, MIL 56% · Updated Apr 30

Expected margin
MIL by 0.7
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 4.4 ARI
Expected total
9.4
DiamondbacksThe matchupBrewers
+127Our fair odds−127
4.4Expected runs5.0
+0.03Power rating+0.20
4.8Runs / game5.1
5.2Allowed / game4.2
8.4Hits / game7.8
1.07Home runs / game0.69
2.7Walks drawn / game4.7
16−13Season record15−14
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · MIL chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+12744%+10548.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−12756%−12655.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.7
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.7our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.7 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more42%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more32%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 21 Kstarted
MILBrandon Woodruff SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·MIL
Apr 29 at MIL
last game
Apr 29 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
ARI·MIL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
4.8
runs / game
5.1
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.2
16−13
season record
15−14
9−6
home record
9−8
7−7
away record
6−6
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
7.8
1.07
home runs / game
0.69
2.7
walks drawn / game
4.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.55
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

ARI · MIL · 36 days
Arizona DiamondbacksMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
Apr 29at MILARI 6 − 2
Apr 28at MILMIL 13 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at MILARI 6 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at MILARI 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 8
Aug 25, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 5
Apr 13, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 4
Apr 11, 2025at ARIMIL 7 − 0
Sep 22, 2024at MILMIL 10 − 9

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 29at MIL6 − 2W
Apr 28at MIL2 − 13L
Apr 26vs SD12 − 7W
Apr 25vs SD4 − 6L
Apr 23vs CHW1 − 4L
Apr 22vs CHW11 − 7W
Apr 21vs CHW5 − 11L
Apr 19vs TOR4 − 10L
Apr 18vs TOR6 − 2W
Apr 17vs TOR6 − 3W

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 29vs ARI2 − 6L
Apr 28vs ARI13 − 2W
Apr 26vs PIT5 − 0W
Apr 25vs PIT3 − 6L
Apr 24vs PIT0 − 6L
Apr 23at DET4 − 5L
Apr 22at DET2 − 5L
Apr 21at DET12 − 4W
Apr 19at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 18at MIA5 − 2W