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Diamondbacks at Brewers

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 29 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final ARI 6 – MIL 2
← MLB / Apr 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI0004000026110
MIL101000000261
Team box
ARI·MIL
11
hits
6
4
home runs
0
4
walks
4
10
strikeouts
10
154
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan ArenadoARI1-3113
Ketel MarteARI2-5111
Corbin CarrollARI2-5111
Adrian Del CastilloARI1-5111
Brice TurangMIL2-4101
Ildemaro VargasARI2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eduardo RodriguezARI4.25244
Kevin Ginkel (W)ARI1.11003
Brandon Sproat (L)MIL4.16425

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +4
ARI +4
123456789
largest lead: MIL 2 · ARI 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 43%, MIL 57% · Updated Apr 29

Expected margin
MIL by 0.8
Expected score
MIL 5.1 – 4.3 ARI
Expected total
9.4
DiamondbacksThe matchupBrewers
+131Our fair odds−131
4.3Expected runs5.1
+0.02Power rating+0.21
4.8Runs / game5.2
5.4Allowed / game4.1
8.3Hits / game7.9
0.96Home runs / game0.71
2.7Walks drawn / game4.7
15−13Season record15−13
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · MIL chance
Our model fair43.2%56.8%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+13143%+10947.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13157%−13156.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.8
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.8our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.8 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more43%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more33%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·MIL
Apr 28 at MIL
last game
Apr 28 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
ARI·MIL
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
4.8
runs / game
5.2
5.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
15−13
season record
15−13
9−6
home record
9−7
6−7
away record
6−6
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
7.9
0.96
home runs / game
0.71
2.7
walks drawn / game
4.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.57
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

ARI · MIL · 35 days
Arizona DiamondbacksMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
Apr 28at MILMIL 13 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at MILARI 6 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at MILARI 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 8
Aug 25, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 5
Apr 13, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 4
Apr 11, 2025at ARIMIL 7 − 0
Sep 22, 2024at MILMIL 10 − 9
Sep 21, 2024at MILARI 5 − 0

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 28at MIL2 − 13L
Apr 26vs SD12 − 7W
Apr 25vs SD4 − 6L
Apr 23vs CHW1 − 4L
Apr 22vs CHW11 − 7W
Apr 21vs CHW5 − 11L
Apr 19vs TOR4 − 10L
Apr 18vs TOR6 − 2W
Apr 17vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 15at BAL8 − 5W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 28vs ARI13 − 2W
Apr 26vs PIT5 − 0W
Apr 25vs PIT3 − 6L
Apr 24vs PIT0 − 6L
Apr 23at DET4 − 5L
Apr 22at DET2 − 5L
Apr 21at DET12 − 4W
Apr 19at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 18at MIA5 − 2W
Apr 17at MIA7 − 5W