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Diamondbacks at Brewers

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final ARI 2 – MIL 13
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000020000231
MIL0102280013150
Team box
ARI·MIL
3
hits
15
0
home runs
1
5
walks
6
8
strikeouts
2
168
pitches thrown
143
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler BlackMIL3-5103
Sal FrelickMIL2-2311
William ContrerasMIL2-4202
Joey OrtizMIL2-4102
David HamiltonMIL2-5102
James McCannARI1-3002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI5.06551
Chad Patrick (W)MIL5.01255
Jake Woodford (S)MIL3.02002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +11
ARI +11
123456789
largest lead: MIL 11 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 44%, MIL 56% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
MIL by 0.5
Expected score
MIL 4.9 – 4.4 ARI
Expected total
9.3
DiamondbacksThe matchupBrewers
+126Our fair odds−126
4.4Expected runs4.9
+0.04Power rating+0.19
4.9Runs / game4.9
5.1Allowed / game4.2
8.5Hits / game7.6
1.00Home runs / game0.70
2.6Walks drawn / game4.7
15−12Season record14−13
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · MIL chance
Our model fair44.2%55.8%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+12644%+11446.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−12656%−13757.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.5
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.5our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.5 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more40%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more30%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 8.36 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MILChad Patrick RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.12 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·MIL
Apr 26 vs SD
last game
Apr 26 vs PIT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
ARI·MIL
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
4.9
runs / game
4.9
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.2
15−12
season record
14−13
9−6
home record
8−7
6−6
away record
6−6
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
7.6
1.00
home runs / game
0.70
2.6
walks drawn / game
4.7
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.56
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

ARI · MIL · 34 days
Arizona DiamondbacksMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 4−6
Aug 28, 2025at MILARI 6 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at MILARI 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 8
Aug 25, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 5
Apr 13, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 4
Apr 11, 2025at ARIMIL 7 − 0
Sep 22, 2024at MILMIL 10 − 9
Sep 21, 2024at MILARI 5 − 0
Sep 20, 2024at MILARI 7 − 4

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 26vs SD12 − 7W
Apr 25vs SD4 − 6L
Apr 23vs CHW1 − 4L
Apr 22vs CHW11 − 7W
Apr 21vs CHW5 − 11L
Apr 19vs TOR4 − 10L
Apr 18vs TOR6 − 2W
Apr 17vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 15at BAL8 − 5W
Apr 14at BAL4 − 3W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 26vs PIT5 − 0W
Apr 25vs PIT3 − 6L
Apr 24vs PIT0 − 6L
Apr 23at DET4 − 5L
Apr 22at DET2 − 5L
Apr 21at DET12 − 4W
Apr 19at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 18at MIA5 − 2W
Apr 17at MIA7 − 5W
Apr 16vs TOR2 − 1W