bayesRatings

Padres at Diamondbacks

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 3:05 PM CT · Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú · neutral site · Final SD 7 – ARI 12
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD0120310007110
ARI0000116412151
Team box
SD·ARI
11
hits
15
3
home runs
3
2
walks
3
6
strikeouts
8
176
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD2-5225
Ildemaro VargasARI3-5314
Tim TawaARI1-4114
Jose FernandezARI3-4311
Luis CampusanoSD2-4112
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI2-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael KingSD6.03218
Bradgley Rodriguez (L)SD0.22210
Ryne NelsonARI5.07624
Ryan Thompson (W)ARI1.02000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +6
SD +6
123456789
largest lead: ARI 5 · SD 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 53%, ARI 47% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
SD by 0.5
Expected score
SD 4.8 – 4.2 ARI
Expected total
9.0
PadresThe matchupDiamondbacks
−114Our fair odds+114
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.15Power rating+0.03
4.5Runs / game4.6
3.8Allowed / game5.0
7.7Hits / game8.3
0.85Home runs / game0.92
3.5Walks drawn / game2.6
18−8Season record14−12
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · ARI chance
Our model fair53.2%46.8%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−11453%−13757.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11447%+11446.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.5
SDSan Diego Padres−0.5our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.5 expected
San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← SD wins byARI wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more40%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more30%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ARIRyne Nelson SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 7.94 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·ARI
Apr 25 at ARI
last game
Apr 25 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
8th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
SD·ARI
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.5
runs / game
4.6
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.0
18−8
season record
14−12
9−4
home record
8−6
9−4
away record
6−6
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
8.3
0.85
home runs / game
0.92
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.27
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

SD · ARI · 32 days
San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 2−8
Apr 25at ARISD 6 − 4
Sep 28, 2025at SDSD 12 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at SDSD 7 − 4
Aug 6, 2025at ARISD 3 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at ARISD 10 − 5
Aug 4, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 2
Jul 10, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Jul 9, 2025at SDARI 8 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at SDSD 1 − 0

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 25at ARI6 − 4W
Apr 23at COL10 − 8W
Apr 22at COL3 − 8L
Apr 21at COL1 − 0W
Apr 19at LAA2 − 1W
Apr 18at LAA4 − 1W
Apr 17at LAA0 − 8L
Apr 16vs SEA5 − 2W
Apr 15vs SEA7 − 6W
Apr 14vs SEA4 − 1W

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 25vs SD4 − 6L
Apr 23vs CHW1 − 4L
Apr 22vs CHW11 − 7W
Apr 21vs CHW5 − 11L
Apr 19vs TOR4 − 10L
Apr 18vs TOR6 − 2W
Apr 17vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 15at BAL8 − 5W
Apr 14at BAL4 − 3W
Apr 13at BAL7 − 9L