bayesRatings

Padres at Rockies

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final SD 1 – COL 0
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000001000160
COL000000000031
Team box
SD·COL
6
hits
3
0
home runs
0
1
walks
0
15
strikeouts
8
104
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-4000
Mickey MoniakCOL1-4000
Edouard JulienCOL1-4000
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-4000
Manny MachadoSD0-3001
Xander BogaertsSD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Randy Vasquez (W)SD7.03005
Adrian Morejon (S)SD1.00002
Jimmy HergetCOL1.00003
Chase Dollander (L)COL6.03119

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · SD 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 67%, COL 33% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
SD by 2.4
Expected score
SD 6.2 – 3.8 COL
Expected total
10.1
PadresThe matchupRockies
−201Our fair odds+201
6.2Expected runs3.8
+0.16Power rating−0.63
4.4Runs / game4.0
3.6Allowed / game4.8
7.6Hits / game8.2
0.77Home runs / game1.00
3.5Walks drawn / game2.9
15−7Season record9−14
9−1Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · COL chance
Our model fair66.8%33.2%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−20167%−14859.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+20133%+12444.7%———
SpreadSD by 2.4
SDSan Diego Padres−2.4our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.1
Over10.1our total————
Under10.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 2.4 expected
San Diego Padres by 18 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 17 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 16 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← SD wins byCOL wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more56%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more46%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.559%
Total over 10.542%
Total over 12.528%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 17 Kstarted
COLJimmy Herget RP · last 3 starts: 5.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·COL
Apr 19 at LAA
last game
Apr 20 vs LAD
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
SD·COL
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.63
4.4
runs / game
4.0
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.8
15−7
season record
9−14
9−4
home record
6−4
6−3
away record
3−10
W2
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
3−7
7.6
hits / game
8.2
0.77
home runs / game
1.00
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.27
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

SD · COL · 27 days
San Diego PadresColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 1−9
Apr 12at SDSD 7 − 2
Apr 11at SDSD 9 − 5
Apr 10at SDSD 5 − 2
Apr 9at SDSD 7 − 3
Sep 14, 2025at SDSD 9 − 6
Sep 13, 2025at SDSD 11 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SDCOL 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at SDSD 2 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at COLSD 8 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at COLSD 10 − 8

SD · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
Apr 19at LAA2 − 1W
Apr 18at LAA4 − 1W
Apr 17at LAA0 − 8L
Apr 16vs SEA5 − 2W
Apr 15vs SEA7 − 6W
Apr 14vs SEA4 − 1W
Apr 12vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 11vs COL9 − 5W
Apr 10vs COL5 − 2W
Apr 9vs COL7 − 3W

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 20vs LAD3 − 12L
Apr 19vs LAD9 − 6W
Apr 18vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 17vs LAD1 − 7L
Apr 16at HOU3 − 2W
Apr 15at HOU1 − 3L
Apr 14at HOU6 − 7L
Apr 12at SD2 − 7L
Apr 11at SD5 − 9L
Apr 10at SD2 − 5L