bayesRatings

Dodgers at Rockies

MLB · Sunday, Apr 19 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final LAD 6 – COL 9
← MLB / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD0021010026150
COL000120339150
Team box
LAD·COL
15
hits
15
0
home runs
2
2
walks
3
7
strikeouts
5
148
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mickey MoniakCOL2-5213
Edouard JulienCOL3-5103
Kyle KarrosCOL2-3211
Alex FreelandLAD2-4102
Max MuncyLAD3-5000
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Roki SasakiLAD4.27322
Blake Treinen (L)LAD0.04300
Michael LorenzenCOL5.07313
Antonio Senzatela (W)COL2.03102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +5
LAD +5
123456789
largest lead: COL 5 · LAD 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 71%, COL 29% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
LAD by 3.2
Expected score
LAD 7.2 – 4.0 COL
Expected total
11.2
DodgersThe matchupRockies
−246Our fair odds+246
7.2Expected runs4.0
+0.36Power rating−0.65
5.8Runs / game3.8
3.2Allowed / game4.4
9.6Hits / game7.7
1.85Home runs / game0.95
3.9Walks drawn / game3.0
15−5Season record8−13
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · COL chance
Our model fair71.1%28.9%
Kalshi67.6%35.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−24671%−20867.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+24629%+18135.6%———
SpreadLAD by 3.2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−3.2our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 3.2 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 20 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 19 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 20 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCOL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more61%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more52%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one run21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.23 ERA, 15 Kstarted
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 9.53 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·COL
Apr 18 at COL
last game
Apr 18 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
LAD·COL
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.65
5.8
runs / game
3.8
3.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
15−5
season record
8−13
9−3
home record
5−3
6−2
away record
3−10
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
3−7
9.6
hits / game
7.7
1.85
home runs / game
0.95
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
10.0
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.25
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

LAD · COL · 25 days
Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Apr 18at COLCOL 4 − 3
Apr 17at COLLAD 7 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 0
Sep 9, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2025at COLLAD 9 − 5
Aug 20, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at COLLAD 11 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 3
Jun 26, 2025at COLLAD 3 − 1

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 18at COL3 − 4L
Apr 17at COL7 − 1W
Apr 15vs NYM8 − 2W
Apr 14vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 13vs NYM4 − 0W
Apr 12vs TEX2 − 5L
Apr 11vs TEX6 − 3W
Apr 10vs TEX8 − 7W
Apr 8at TOR3 − 4L
Apr 7at TOR4 − 1W

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 18vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 17vs LAD1 − 7L
Apr 16at HOU3 − 2W
Apr 15at HOU1 − 3L
Apr 14at HOU6 − 7L
Apr 12at SD2 − 7L
Apr 11at SD5 − 9L
Apr 10at SD2 − 5L
Apr 9at SD3 − 7L
Apr 8vs HOU9 − 1W