bayesRatings

Dodgers at Rockies

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final LAD 7 – COL 1
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD1121200007130
COL000100000120
Team box
LAD·COL
13
hits
2
2
home runs
0
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
10
123
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max MuncyLAD3-4223
Will SmithLAD2-4102
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4100
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-5100
Andy PagesLAD1-2101
Alex FreelandLAD1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Glasnow (W)LAD7.02127
Tomoyuki Sugano (L)COL4.09523

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +6
LAD +6
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · LAD 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 71%, COL 29% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
LAD by 3.1
Expected score
LAD 7.3 – 4.2 COL
Expected total
11.5
DodgersThe matchupRockies
−248Our fair odds+248
7.3Expected runs4.2
+0.36Power rating−0.66
5.8Runs / game3.9
3.3Allowed / game4.4
9.5Hits / game8.1
1.83Home runs / game1.05
4.1Walks drawn / game3.0
14−4Season record7−12
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · COL chance
Our model fair71.2%28.7%
Kalshi75.3%28.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−24871%−30675.3%———
COLColorado Rockies+24829%+25228.4%———
SpreadLAD by 3.1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−3.1our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.5
Over11.5our total————
Under11.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 3.1 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 20 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 19 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 20 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCOL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more60%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more51%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one run20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.559%
Total over 11.544%
Total over 13.531%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADTyler Glasnow SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 22 Kstarted
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·COL
Apr 15 vs NYM
last game
Apr 16 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
LAD·COL
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.66
5.8
runs / game
3.9
3.3
runs allowed / game
4.4
14−4
season record
7−12
9−3
home record
4−2
5−1
away record
3−10
W3
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
4−6
9.5
hits / game
8.1
1.83
home runs / game
1.05
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
10.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.28
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

LAD · COL · 23 days
Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
Sep 10, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 0
Sep 9, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2025at COLLAD 9 − 5
Aug 20, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at COLLAD 11 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 3
Jun 26, 2025at COLLAD 3 − 1
Jun 25, 2025at COLLAD 8 − 1
Jun 24, 2025at COLLAD 9 − 7

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Apr 15vs NYM8 − 2W
Apr 14vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 13vs NYM4 − 0W
Apr 12vs TEX2 − 5L
Apr 11vs TEX6 − 3W
Apr 10vs TEX8 − 7W
Apr 8at TOR3 − 4L
Apr 7at TOR4 − 1W
Apr 6at TOR14 − 2W
Apr 5at WSH8 − 6W

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 16at HOU3 − 2W
Apr 15at HOU1 − 3L
Apr 14at HOU6 − 7L
Apr 12at SD2 − 7L
Apr 11at SD5 − 9L
Apr 10at SD2 − 5L
Apr 9at SD3 − 7L
Apr 8vs HOU9 − 1W
Apr 7vs HOU5 − 1W
Apr 6vs HOU9 − 7W