bayesRatings

Dodgers at Rockies

MLB · Saturday, Apr 18 · 7:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final LAD 3 – COL 4
← MLB / Apr 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD210000000380
COL11000200472
Team box
LAD·COL
8
hits
7
2
home runs
0
2
walks
2
8
strikeouts
7
127
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle TuckerLAD3-5112
Troy JohnstonCOL3-4102
Dalton RushingLAD1-4111
TJ RumfieldCOL1-4001
Freddie FreemanLAD2-3000
Mickey MoniakCOL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emmet SheehanLAD5.04224
Will Klein (L)LAD1.03200
Ryan FeltnerCOL5.25215
Brennan Bernardino (W)COL1.10002
Victor Vodnik (S)COL1.02000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 1 · LAD 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 72%, COL 28% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
LAD by 3.2
Expected score
LAD 7.3 – 4.2 COL
Expected total
11.5
DodgersThe matchupRockies
−258Our fair odds+258
7.3Expected runs4.2
+0.38Power rating−0.68
5.9Runs / game3.8
3.2Allowed / game4.5
9.7Hits / game7.8
1.84Home runs / game1.00
4.0Walks drawn / game3.0
15−4Season record7−13
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · COL chance
Our model fair72.1%27.9%
Kalshi74.4%29.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−25872%−29074.4%———
COLColorado Rockies+25828%+24029.4%———
SpreadLAD by 3.2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−3.2our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.5
Over11.5our total————
Under11.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 3.2 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 20 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 19 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 20 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCOL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more61%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more52%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one run20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.559%
Total over 11.544%
Total over 13.531%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 14 Kstarted
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 7.30 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·COL
Apr 17 at COL
last game
Apr 17 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
LAD·COL
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
−0.68
5.9
runs / game
3.8
3.2
runs allowed / game
4.5
15−4
season record
7−13
9−3
home record
4−3
6−1
away record
3−10
W4
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
3−7
9.7
hits / game
7.8
1.84
home runs / game
1.00
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
10.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.26
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

LAD · COL · 24 days
Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
Apr 17at COLLAD 7 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 0
Sep 9, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2025at COLLAD 9 − 5
Aug 20, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at COLLAD 11 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 3
Jun 26, 2025at COLLAD 3 − 1
Jun 25, 2025at COLLAD 8 − 1

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Apr 17at COL7 − 1W
Apr 15vs NYM8 − 2W
Apr 14vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 13vs NYM4 − 0W
Apr 12vs TEX2 − 5L
Apr 11vs TEX6 − 3W
Apr 10vs TEX8 − 7W
Apr 8at TOR3 − 4L
Apr 7at TOR4 − 1W
Apr 6at TOR14 − 2W

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 17vs LAD1 − 7L
Apr 16at HOU3 − 2W
Apr 15at HOU1 − 3L
Apr 14at HOU6 − 7L
Apr 12at SD2 − 7L
Apr 11at SD5 − 9L
Apr 10at SD2 − 5L
Apr 9at SD3 − 7L
Apr 8vs HOU9 − 1W
Apr 7vs HOU5 − 1W