bayesRatings

Dodgers at Rockies

MLB · Monday, Apr 20 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final LAD 12 – COL 3
← MLB / Apr 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD02210112312150
COL1000000113113
Team box
LAD·COL
15
hits
11
5
home runs
1
4
walks
1
7
strikeouts
5
137
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max MuncyLAD4-4422
Dalton RushingLAD2-5223
Miguel RojasLAD3-3112
Jordan BeckCOL3-4101
TJ RumfieldCOL1-4111
Willi CastroCOL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin Wrobleski (W)LAD7.08103
Jose Quintana (L)COL5.08411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +10
LAD +10
123456789
largest lead: COL 1 · LAD 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 69%, COL 31% · Updated Apr 20

Expected margin
LAD by 3.1
Expected score
LAD 7.2 – 4.1 COL
Expected total
11.3
DodgersThe matchupRockies
−224Our fair odds+224
7.2Expected runs4.1
+0.31Power rating−0.60
5.8Runs / game4.0
3.5Allowed / game4.5
9.9Hits / game8.0
1.76Home runs / game1.00
3.8Walks drawn / game3.0
15−6Season record9−13
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · COL chance
Our model fair69.2%30.8%
Kalshi67.6%36.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−22469%−20867.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+22431%+17336.6%———
SpreadLAD by 3.1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−3.1our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.3
Over11.3our total————
Under11.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 3.1 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 20 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 19 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 9%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 20 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCOL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more61%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more52%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one run21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.558%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 9 Kstarted
COLJose Quintana SP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·COL
Apr 19 at COL
last game
Apr 19 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
LAD·COL
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.60
5.8
runs / game
4.0
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
15−6
season record
9−13
9−3
home record
6−3
6−3
away record
3−10
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
3−7
9.9
hits / game
8.0
1.76
home runs / game
1.00
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.24
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

LAD · COL · 26 days
Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Apr 19at COLCOL 9 − 6
Apr 18at COLCOL 4 − 3
Apr 17at COLLAD 7 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 0
Sep 9, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2025at COLLAD 9 − 5
Aug 20, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at COLLAD 11 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 3

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 19at COL6 − 9L
Apr 18at COL3 − 4L
Apr 17at COL7 − 1W
Apr 15vs NYM8 − 2W
Apr 14vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 13vs NYM4 − 0W
Apr 12vs TEX2 − 5L
Apr 11vs TEX6 − 3W
Apr 10vs TEX8 − 7W
Apr 8at TOR3 − 4L

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Apr 19vs LAD9 − 6W
Apr 18vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 17vs LAD1 − 7L
Apr 16at HOU3 − 2W
Apr 15at HOU1 − 3L
Apr 14at HOU6 − 7L
Apr 12at SD2 − 7L
Apr 11at SD5 − 9L
Apr 10at SD2 − 5L
Apr 9at SD3 − 7L