bayesRatings

Padres at Rockies

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final SD 3 – COL 8
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD100000101370
COL040101118151
Team box
SD·COL
7
hits
15
1
home runs
1
3
walks
4
7
strikeouts
6
179
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hunter GoodmanCOL3-4211
Luis CampusanoSD3-4211
TJ RumfieldCOL2-5002
Willi CastroCOL2-3101
Mickey MoniakCOL2-4101
Jake McCarthyCOL2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walker Buehler (L)SD2.28432
Tomoyuki Sugano (W)COL5.25114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +6
SD +6
123456789
largest lead: COL 6 · SD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 67%, COL 33% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
SD by 2.3
Expected score
SD 6.1 – 3.8 COL
Expected total
9.8
PadresThe matchupRockies
−203Our fair odds+203
6.1Expected runs3.8
+0.16Power rating−0.64
4.2Runs / game3.8
3.4Allowed / game4.7
7.6Hits / game8.0
0.74Home runs / game0.96
3.4Walks drawn / game2.8
16−7Season record9−15
9−1Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · COL chance
Our model fair67.0%33.0%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−20367%−16161.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+20333%+13442.7%———
SpreadSD by 2.3
SDSan Diego Padres−2.3our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 2.3 expected
San Diego Padres by 17 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 16 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← SD wins byCOL wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more55%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more45%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 15 Kstarted
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·COL
Apr 21 at COL
last game
Apr 21 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
SD·COL
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.64
4.2
runs / game
3.8
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.7
16−7
season record
9−15
9−4
home record
6−5
7−3
away record
3−10
W3
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
3−7
7.6
hits / game
8.0
0.74
home runs / game
0.96
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.26
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

SD · COL · 28 days
San Diego PadresColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 1−9
Apr 21at COLSD 1 − 0
Apr 12at SDSD 7 − 2
Apr 11at SDSD 9 − 5
Apr 10at SDSD 5 − 2
Apr 9at SDSD 7 − 3
Sep 14, 2025at SDSD 9 − 6
Sep 13, 2025at SDSD 11 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SDCOL 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at SDSD 2 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at COLSD 8 − 1

SD · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
Apr 21at COL1 − 0W
Apr 19at LAA2 − 1W
Apr 18at LAA4 − 1W
Apr 17at LAA0 − 8L
Apr 16vs SEA5 − 2W
Apr 15vs SEA7 − 6W
Apr 14vs SEA4 − 1W
Apr 12vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 11vs COL9 − 5W
Apr 10vs COL5 − 2W

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 21vs SD0 − 1L
Apr 20vs LAD3 − 12L
Apr 19vs LAD9 − 6W
Apr 18vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 17vs LAD1 − 7L
Apr 16at HOU3 − 2W
Apr 15at HOU1 − 3L
Apr 14at HOU6 − 7L
Apr 12at SD2 − 7L
Apr 11at SD5 − 9L