bayesRatings

Padres at Rockies

MLB · Thursday, Apr 23 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final SD 10 – COL 8
← MLB / Apr 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD02011001510130
COL1401011008142
Team box
SD·COL
13
hits
14
2
home runs
2
5
walks
3
13
strikeouts
4
133
pitches thrown
199
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mickey MoniakCOL4-5322
Xander BogaertsSD2-3312
Gavin SheetsSD1-2113
Troy JohnstonCOL3-4002
Miguel AndujarSD2-5003
Ramon LaureanoSD3-6002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matt WaldronSD5.08633
Ron Marinaccio (W)SD2.04100
Mason Miller (S)SD1.01000
Ryan FeltnerCOL2.02213
Victor Vodnik (L)COL0.24512

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
SD +4
123456789
largest lead: COL 4 · SD 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 66%, COL 34% · Updated Apr 23

Expected margin
SD by 2.1
Expected score
SD 6.0 – 3.9 COL
Expected total
9.8
PadresThe matchupRockies
−192Our fair odds+192
6.0Expected runs3.9
+0.14Power rating−0.61
4.2Runs / game4.0
3.6Allowed / game4.6
7.5Hits / game8.2
0.75Home runs / game0.96
3.4Walks drawn / game2.8
16−8Season record10−15
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · COL chance
Our model fair65.7%34.3%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−19266%−15460.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+19234%+12444.7%———
SpreadSD by 2.1
SDSan Diego Padres−2.1our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 2.1 expected
San Diego Padres by 17 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 16 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← SD wins byCOL wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more54%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more43%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMatt Waldron RP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 14.21 ERA, 10 Kstarted
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·COL
Apr 22 at COL
last game
Apr 22 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
SD·COL
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.61
4.2
runs / game
4.0
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.6
16−8
season record
10−15
9−4
home record
7−5
7−4
away record
3−10
L1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.2
0.75
home runs / game
0.96
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.25
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

SD · COL · 29 days
San Diego PadresColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
Apr 22at COLCOL 8 − 3
Apr 21at COLSD 1 − 0
Apr 12at SDSD 7 − 2
Apr 11at SDSD 9 − 5
Apr 10at SDSD 5 − 2
Apr 9at SDSD 7 − 3
Sep 14, 2025at SDSD 9 − 6
Sep 13, 2025at SDSD 11 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SDCOL 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at SDSD 2 − 0

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Apr 22at COL3 − 8L
Apr 21at COL1 − 0W
Apr 19at LAA2 − 1W
Apr 18at LAA4 − 1W
Apr 17at LAA0 − 8L
Apr 16vs SEA5 − 2W
Apr 15vs SEA7 − 6W
Apr 14vs SEA4 − 1W
Apr 12vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 11vs COL9 − 5W

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 22vs SD8 − 3W
Apr 21vs SD0 − 1L
Apr 20vs LAD3 − 12L
Apr 19vs LAD9 − 6W
Apr 18vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 17vs LAD1 − 7L
Apr 16at HOU3 − 2W
Apr 15at HOU1 − 3L
Apr 14at HOU6 − 7L
Apr 12at SD2 − 7L