bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Cubs

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final ARI 5 – CHC 6
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI0010040005110
CHC30030000681
Team box
ARI·CHC
11
hits
8
1
home runs
0
2
walks
4
13
strikeouts
5
148
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-5113
Ildemaro VargasARI4-4001
Michael BuschCHC2-4002
Jorge BarrosaARI2-4201
Carson KellyCHC2-4101
Alex BregmanCHC1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac Gallen (L)ARI3.27633
Colin Rea (W)CHC5.18206
Jacob Webb (S)CHC2.00013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +5
ARI +5
123456789
largest lead: CHC 5 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 43%, CHC 57% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
CHC by 0.7
Expected score
CHC 5.1 – 4.5 ARI
Expected total
9.6
DiamondbacksThe matchupCubs
+132Our fair odds−132
4.5Expected runs5.1
+0.01Power rating+0.21
4.7Runs / game5.5
5.5Allowed / game4.3
8.3Hits / game9.0
1.03Home runs / game1.35
2.7Walks drawn / game4.5
16−14Season record19−12
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · CHC chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+13243%+12444.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13257%−15460.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.7
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.7our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.7 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more32%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 8 Kstarted
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·CHC
Apr 30 at MIL
last game
Apr 29 at SD
0 days
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
ARI·CHC
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
4.7
runs / game
5.5
5.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
16−14
season record
19−12
9−6
home record
11−5
7−8
away record
8−7
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
9.0
1.03
home runs / game
1.35
2.7
walks drawn / game
4.5
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.60
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

ARI · CHC · 37 days
Arizona DiamondbacksChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Apr 20, 2025at CHCARI 3 − 2
Apr 19, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 2
Apr 18, 2025at CHCCHC 13 − 11
Mar 30, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 6
Mar 29, 2025at ARICHC 4 − 3
Mar 28, 2025at ARIARI 8 − 1
Mar 27, 2025at ARICHC 10 − 6
Jul 21, 2024at CHCCHC 2 − 1
Jul 20, 2024at CHCARI 3 − 0
Jul 19, 2024at CHCARI 5 − 2

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 30at MIL1 − 13L
Apr 29at MIL6 − 2W
Apr 28at MIL2 − 13L
Apr 26vs SD12 − 7W
Apr 25vs SD4 − 6L
Apr 23vs CHW1 − 4L
Apr 22vs CHW11 − 7W
Apr 21vs CHW5 − 11L
Apr 19vs TOR4 − 10L
Apr 18vs TOR6 − 2W

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 29at SD5 − 4W
Apr 28at SD8 − 3W
Apr 27at SD7 − 9L
Apr 26at LAD0 − 6L
Apr 25at LAD4 − 12L
Apr 24at LAD6 − 4W
Apr 23vs PHI8 − 7W
Apr 22vs PHI7 − 2W
Apr 21vs PHI7 − 4W
Apr 20vs PHI5 − 1W