bayesRatings

Cubs at Dodgers

MLB · Saturday, Apr 25 · 6:15 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final CHC 4 – LAD 12
← MLB / Apr 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC011110000490
LAD0026040012141
Team box
CHC·LAD
9
hits
14
3
home runs
1
2
walks
6
11
strikeouts
7
193
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Seiya SuzukiCHC3-4111
Andy PagesLAD2-5103
Max MuncyLAD1-1112
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-3202
Miguel AmayaCHC1-3211
Moises BallesterosCHC1-3111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Colin Rea (L)CHC3.16644
Roki Sasaki (W)LAD5.07415

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +8
CHC +8
123456789
largest lead: LAD 8 · CHC 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 46%, LAD 54% · Updated Apr 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LAD 4.5 – 4.4 CHC
Expected total
8.9
CubsThe matchupDodgers
+117Our fair odds−117
4.4Expected runs4.5
+0.23Power rating+0.30
5.6Runs / game5.4
3.8Allowed / game3.4
9.3Hits / game9.3
1.31Home runs / game1.65
4.5Walks drawn / game3.8
17−9Season record17−9
10−0Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · LAD chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+11746%+10548.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11754%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs+0.1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more36%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more26%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.04 ERA, 14 Kstarted
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.24 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·LAD
Apr 24 at LAD
last game
Apr 24 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
CHC·LAD
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
5.6
runs / game
5.4
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.4
17−9
season record
17−9
11−5
home record
9−4
6−4
away record
8−5
W10
streak
L1
10−0
last 10
5−5
9.3
hits / game
9.3
1.31
home runs / game
1.65
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.54
errors / game
0.27

Rating Trend

CHC · LAD · 31 days
Chicago CubsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 4−6
Apr 24at LADCHC 6 − 4
Apr 23, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Apr 22, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 10
Apr 13, 2025at LADCHC 4 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at LADCHC 16 − 0
Apr 11, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 0
Mar 19, 2025at CHCLAD 6 − 3
Mar 18, 2025at CHCLAD 4 − 1
Sep 11, 2024at LADLAD 10 − 8
Sep 10, 2024at LADCHC 6 − 3

CHC · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Apr 24at LAD6 − 4W
Apr 23vs PHI8 − 7W
Apr 22vs PHI7 − 2W
Apr 21vs PHI7 − 4W
Apr 20vs PHI5 − 1W
Apr 19vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 18vs NYM4 − 2W
Apr 17vs NYM12 − 4W
Apr 15at PHI11 − 2W
Apr 14at PHI10 − 4W

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 24vs CHC4 − 6L
Apr 23at SF3 − 0W
Apr 22at SF0 − 3L
Apr 21at SF1 − 3L
Apr 20at COL12 − 3W
Apr 19at COL6 − 9L
Apr 18at COL3 − 4L
Apr 17at COL7 − 1W
Apr 15vs NYM8 − 2W
Apr 14vs NYM2 − 1W