bayesRatings

Cubs at Dodgers

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 9:15 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final CHC 6 – LAD 4
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC0000003126110
LAD003100000460
Team box
CHC·LAD
11
hits
6
2
home runs
1
2
walks
3
13
strikeouts
6
134
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dansby SwansonCHC2-3214
Will SmithLAD1-4113
Alex BregmanCHC2-5111
Hyeseong KimLAD2-3101
Nico HoernerCHC1-5001
Michael BuschCHC2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jameson TaillonCHC5.04434
Ryan Rolison (W)CHC3.02001
Corbin Martin (S)CHC1.00001
Emmet SheehanLAD6.141110
Tanner Scott (L)LAD0.22200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
CHC +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 4 · CHC 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 45%, LAD 55% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LAD 4.5 – 4.3 CHC
Expected total
8.8
CubsThe matchupDodgers
+121Our fair odds−121
4.3Expected runs4.5
+0.22Power rating+0.32
5.6Runs / game5.5
3.8Allowed / game3.3
9.2Hits / game9.5
1.28Home runs / game1.68
4.6Walks drawn / game3.9
16−9Season record17−8
9−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · LAD chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+12145%+12943.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12155%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs+0.2our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 18%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more37%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more27%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCJameson Taillon SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 18 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·LAD
Apr 23 vs PHI
last game
Apr 23 at SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
CHC·LAD
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
5.6
runs / game
5.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.3
16−9
season record
17−8
11−5
home record
9−3
5−4
away record
8−5
W9
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
6−4
9.2
hits / game
9.5
1.28
home runs / game
1.68
4.6
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.56
errors / game
0.28

Rating Trend

CHC · LAD · 30 days
Chicago CubsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 4−6
Apr 23, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Apr 22, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 10
Apr 13, 2025at LADCHC 4 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at LADCHC 16 − 0
Apr 11, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 0
Mar 19, 2025at CHCLAD 6 − 3
Mar 18, 2025at CHCLAD 4 − 1
Sep 11, 2024at LADLAD 10 − 8
Sep 10, 2024at LADCHC 6 − 3
Sep 9, 2024at LADCHC 10 − 4

CHC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Apr 23vs PHI8 − 7W
Apr 22vs PHI7 − 2W
Apr 21vs PHI7 − 4W
Apr 20vs PHI5 − 1W
Apr 19vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 18vs NYM4 − 2W
Apr 17vs NYM12 − 4W
Apr 15at PHI11 − 2W
Apr 14at PHI10 − 4W
Apr 13at PHI7 − 13L

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 23at SF3 − 0W
Apr 22at SF0 − 3L
Apr 21at SF1 − 3L
Apr 20at COL12 − 3W
Apr 19at COL6 − 9L
Apr 18at COL3 − 4L
Apr 17at COL7 − 1W
Apr 15vs NYM8 − 2W
Apr 14vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 13vs NYM4 − 0W