bayesRatings

Dodgers at Giants

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final LAD 1 – SF 3
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000100000131
SF30000000360
Team box
LAD·SF
3
hits
6
0
home runs
0
7
walks
3
12
strikeouts
8
117
pitches thrown
176
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-3001
Hyeseong KimLAD1-1001
Rafael DeversSF1-4001
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-3100
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-4000
Willy AdamesSF1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (L)LAD7.06327
Landen Roupp (W)SF5.01157
Ryan Walker (S)SF1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 3 · LAD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 57%, SF 43% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
LAD by 1.2
Expected score
LAD 5.0 – 3.9 SF
Expected total
8.9
DodgersThe matchupGiants
−135Our fair odds+135
5.0Expected runs3.9
+0.35Power rating−0.04
6.0Runs / game3.4
3.5Allowed / game4.4
10.1Hits / game8.7
1.91Home runs / game0.59
3.8Walks drawn / game2.0
16−6Season record9−13
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · SF chance
Our model fair57.4%42.6%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13557%−17563.6%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+13543%+14640.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.2 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins bySF wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more47%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more36%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·SF
Apr 20 at COL
last game
Apr 19 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
LAD·SF
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
6.0
runs / game
3.4
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
16−6
season record
9−13
9−3
home record
3−7
7−3
away record
6−6
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
10.1
hits / game
8.7
1.91
home runs / game
0.59
3.8
walks drawn / game
2.0
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.23
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

LAD · SF · 27 days
Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
Sep 21, 2025at LADSF 3 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 5
Sep 19, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3
Sep 18, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at SFLAD 10 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at SFLAD 13 − 7
Sep 12, 2025at SFSF 5 − 1
Jul 13, 2025at SFLAD 5 − 2
Jul 12, 2025at SFLAD 2 − 1
Jul 11, 2025at SFSF 8 − 7

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 20at COL12 − 3W
Apr 19at COL6 − 9L
Apr 18at COL3 − 4L
Apr 17at COL7 − 1W
Apr 15vs NYM8 − 2W
Apr 14vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 13vs NYM4 − 0W
Apr 12vs TEX2 − 5L
Apr 11vs TEX6 − 3W
Apr 10vs TEX8 − 7W

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 19at WSH0 − 3L
Apr 18at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 17at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 16at CIN3 − 0W
Apr 15at CIN3 − 8L
Apr 14at CIN1 − 2L
Apr 12at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 11at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 10at BAL6 − 3W
Apr 8vs PHI5 − 0W