bayesRatings

Dodgers at Giants

MLB · Thursday, Apr 23 · 2:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final LAD 3 – SF 0
← MLB / Apr 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD010200000381
SF000000000011
Team box
LAD·SF
8
hits
1
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
7
strikeouts
9
118
pitches thrown
123
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hyeseong KimLAD2-4001
Kyle TuckerLAD2-4100
Dalton RushingLAD1-2001
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4000
Max MuncyLAD1-3200
Alex FreelandLAD1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Glasnow (W)LAD8.01019
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00000
Logan Webb (L)SF7.07325

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · LAD 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 56%, SF 44% · Updated Apr 23

Expected margin
LAD by 1.1
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 3.7 SF
Expected total
8.5
DodgersThe matchupGiants
−126Our fair odds+126
4.8Expected runs3.7
+0.31Power rating−0.01
5.6Runs / game3.4
3.4Allowed / game4.0
9.5Hits / game8.5
1.75Home runs / game0.58
3.9Walks drawn / game1.9
16−8Season record11−13
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · SF chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshi61.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12656%−16161.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+12644%+12943.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.1our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.1 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%
← LAD wins bySF wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more46%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADTyler Glasnow SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.32 ERA, 23 Kstarted
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·SF
Apr 22 at SF
last game
Apr 22 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
LAD·SF
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.6
runs / game
3.4
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.0
16−8
season record
11−13
9−3
home record
5−7
7−5
away record
6−6
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
9.5
hits / game
8.5
1.75
home runs / game
0.58
3.9
walks drawn / game
1.9
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.25
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

LAD · SF · 29 days
Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 4−6
Apr 22at SFSF 3 − 0
Apr 21at SFSF 3 − 1
Sep 21, 2025at LADSF 3 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 5
Sep 19, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3
Sep 18, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at SFLAD 10 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at SFLAD 13 − 7
Sep 12, 2025at SFSF 5 − 1
Jul 13, 2025at SFLAD 5 − 2

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 22at SF0 − 3L
Apr 21at SF1 − 3L
Apr 20at COL12 − 3W
Apr 19at COL6 − 9L
Apr 18at COL3 − 4L
Apr 17at COL7 − 1W
Apr 15vs NYM8 − 2W
Apr 14vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 13vs NYM4 − 0W
Apr 12vs TEX2 − 5L

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 22vs LAD3 − 0W
Apr 21vs LAD3 − 1W
Apr 19at WSH0 − 3L
Apr 18at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 17at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 16at CIN3 − 0W
Apr 15at CIN3 − 8L
Apr 14at CIN1 − 2L
Apr 12at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 11at BAL2 − 6L