bayesRatings

Dodgers at Giants

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final LAD 0 – SF 3
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000000000040
SF00000030380
Team box
LAD·SF
4
hits
8
0
home runs
1
3
walks
0
5
strikeouts
8
120
pitches thrown
120
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Patrick BaileySF1-3113
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4000
Rafael DeversSF2-4000
Heliot RamosSF2-3100
Miguel RojasLAD1-3000
Max MuncyLAD1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shohei OhtaniLAD6.05007
Jack Dreyer (L)LAD1.03300
Tyler Mahle (W)SF7.03025
Ryan Walker (S)SF1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 3 · LAD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 57%, SF 43% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
LAD by 1.2
Expected score
LAD 4.9 – 3.7 SF
Expected total
8.7
DodgersThe matchupGiants
−131Our fair odds+131
4.9Expected runs3.7
+0.33Power rating−0.02
5.8Runs / game3.4
3.4Allowed / game4.2
9.8Hits / game8.6
1.83Home runs / game0.57
4.0Walks drawn / game2.0
16−7Season record10−13
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · SF chance
Our model fair56.7%43.3%
Kalshi67.6%37.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13157%−20867.6%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+13143%+16637.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.2 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%
← LAD wins bySF wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more47%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more36%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADShohei Ohtani DH · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 0.50 ERA, 18 Kstarted
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.98 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·SF
Apr 21 at SF
last game
Apr 21 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
LAD·SF
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
5.8
runs / game
3.4
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.2
16−7
season record
10−13
9−3
home record
4−7
7−4
away record
6−6
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
9.8
hits / game
8.6
1.83
home runs / game
0.57
4.0
walks drawn / game
2.0
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.26
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

LAD · SF · 28 days
Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
Apr 21at SFSF 3 − 1
Sep 21, 2025at LADSF 3 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 5
Sep 19, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3
Sep 18, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at SFLAD 10 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at SFLAD 13 − 7
Sep 12, 2025at SFSF 5 − 1
Jul 13, 2025at SFLAD 5 − 2
Jul 12, 2025at SFLAD 2 − 1

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 21at SF1 − 3L
Apr 20at COL12 − 3W
Apr 19at COL6 − 9L
Apr 18at COL3 − 4L
Apr 17at COL7 − 1W
Apr 15vs NYM8 − 2W
Apr 14vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 13vs NYM4 − 0W
Apr 12vs TEX2 − 5L
Apr 11vs TEX6 − 3W

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 21vs LAD3 − 1W
Apr 19at WSH0 − 3L
Apr 18at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 17at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 16at CIN3 − 0W
Apr 15at CIN3 − 8L
Apr 14at CIN1 − 2L
Apr 12at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 11at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 10at BAL6 − 3W