bayesRatings

Cubs at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 3:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final CHC 0 – LAD 6
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000000000042
LAD30000210670
Team box
CHC·LAD
4
hits
7
0
home runs
1
6
walks
3
8
strikeouts
8
127
pitches thrown
153
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD3-3211
Miguel RojasLAD1-3002
Andy PagesLAD1-3101
Dalton RushingLAD1-4001
Carson KellyCHC1-4000
Nico HoernerCHC1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shota Imanaga (L)CHC5.16436
Justin Wrobleski (W)LAD6.04046

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +6
CHC +6
123456789
largest lead: LAD 6 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 45%, LAD 55% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LAD 4.6 – 4.4 CHC
Expected total
9.0
CubsThe matchupDodgers
+122Our fair odds−122
4.4Expected runs4.6
+0.21Power rating+0.33
5.5Runs / game5.7
4.1Allowed / game3.4
9.3Hits / game9.5
1.37Home runs / game1.63
4.4Walks drawn / game3.9
17−10Season record18−9
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · LAD chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+12245%+10149.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12255%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs+0.2our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more37%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more27%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 21 Kstarted
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·LAD
Apr 25 at LAD
last game
Apr 25 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
CHC·LAD
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
5.5
runs / game
5.7
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.4
17−10
season record
18−9
11−5
home record
10−4
6−5
away record
8−5
L1
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
5−5
9.3
hits / game
9.5
1.37
home runs / game
1.63
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.52
errors / game
0.30

Rating Trend

CHC · LAD · 32 days
Chicago CubsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
Apr 25at LADLAD 12 − 4
Apr 24at LADCHC 6 − 4
Apr 23, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Apr 22, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 10
Apr 13, 2025at LADCHC 4 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at LADCHC 16 − 0
Apr 11, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 0
Mar 19, 2025at CHCLAD 6 − 3
Mar 18, 2025at CHCLAD 4 − 1
Sep 11, 2024at LADLAD 10 − 8

CHC · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Apr 25at LAD4 − 12L
Apr 24at LAD6 − 4W
Apr 23vs PHI8 − 7W
Apr 22vs PHI7 − 2W
Apr 21vs PHI7 − 4W
Apr 20vs PHI5 − 1W
Apr 19vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 18vs NYM4 − 2W
Apr 17vs NYM12 − 4W
Apr 15at PHI11 − 2W

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 25vs CHC12 − 4W
Apr 24vs CHC4 − 6L
Apr 23at SF3 − 0W
Apr 22at SF0 − 3L
Apr 21at SF1 − 3L
Apr 20at COL12 − 3W
Apr 19at COL6 − 9L
Apr 18at COL3 − 4L
Apr 17at COL7 − 1W
Apr 15vs NYM8 − 2W