bayesRatings

Cubs at Padres

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final CHC 8 – SD 3
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC020002400880
SD010101000361
Team box
CHC·SD
8
hits
6
1
home runs
1
6
walks
1
7
strikeouts
10
143
pitches thrown
182
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-4213
Xander BogaertsSD1-3211
Alex BregmanCHC2-2101
Dansby SwansonCHC1-1002
Nico HoernerCHC1-5002
Ty FranceSD2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Edward Cabrera (W)CHC5.26317
Walker BuehlerSD4.23234
Kyle Hart (L)SD0.21211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +5
CHC +5
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · CHC 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 49%, SD 51% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.2 – 4.1 SD
Expected total
8.3
CubsThe matchupPadres
+105Our fair odds−105
4.2Expected runs4.1
+0.18Power rating+0.15
5.4Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game4.2
9.0Hits / game8.0
1.34Home runs / game0.93
4.5Walks drawn / game3.5
17−12Season record19−9
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · SD chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+10549%−12154.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−10551%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs−0.1our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 17%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← CHC wins bySD wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more37%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more26%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·SD
Apr 27 at SD
last game
Apr 27 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
CHC·SD
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
5.4
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.2
17−12
season record
19−9
11−5
home record
10−4
6−7
away record
9−5
L3
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
7−3
9.0
hits / game
8.0
1.34
home runs / game
0.93
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.55
errors / game
0.25

Rating Trend

CHC · SD · 34 days
Chicago CubsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 5−5
Apr 27at SDSD 9 − 7
Oct 2, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post
Oct 1, 2025at CHCSD 3 − 0post
Sep 30, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post
Apr 16, 2025at SDSD 4 − 2
Apr 15, 2025at SDCHC 2 − 1
Apr 14, 2025at SDSD 10 − 4
Apr 6, 2025at CHCSD 8 − 7
Apr 5, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 1
Apr 4, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L3
Apr 27at SD7 − 9L
Apr 26at LAD0 − 6L
Apr 25at LAD4 − 12L
Apr 24at LAD6 − 4W
Apr 23vs PHI8 − 7W
Apr 22vs PHI7 − 2W
Apr 21vs PHI7 − 4W
Apr 20vs PHI5 − 1W
Apr 19vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 18vs NYM4 − 2W

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 27vs CHC9 − 7W
Apr 26at ARI7 − 12L
Apr 25at ARI6 − 4W
Apr 23at COL10 − 8W
Apr 22at COL3 − 8L
Apr 21at COL1 − 0W
Apr 19at LAA2 − 1W
Apr 18at LAA4 − 1W
Apr 17at LAA0 − 8L
Apr 16vs SEA5 − 2W