bayesRatings

Cubs at Padres

MLB · Monday, Apr 27 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final CHC 7 – SD 9
← MLB / Apr 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC014000002780
SD301020219140
Team box
CHC·SD
8
hits
14
2
home runs
1
4
walks
3
8
strikeouts
8
177
pitches thrown
171
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Moises BallesterosCHC1-4114
Ty FranceSD2-3104
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-4211
Gavin SheetsSD1-1111
Manny MachadoSD3-4300
Nick CastellanosSD1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew BoydCHC4.08524
Ben Brown (L)CHC2.02011
Randy Vasquez (W)SD5.05534

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +4
CHC +4
123456789
largest lead: SD 4 · CHC 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 49%, SD 51% · Updated Apr 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.1 – 4.1 CHC
Expected total
8.2
CubsThe matchupPadres
+104Our fair odds−104
4.1Expected runs4.1
+0.19Power rating+0.14
5.3Runs / game4.6
4.2Allowed / game4.1
9.1Hits / game7.8
1.32Home runs / game0.93
4.5Walks drawn / game3.5
17−11Season record18−9
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · SD chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+10449%−10350.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−10451%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago CubsPKour margin————
SDSan Diego PadresPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← CHC wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more35%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more25%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 22 Kstarted
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·SD
Apr 26 at LAD
last game
Apr 26 at ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
CHC·SD
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
5.3
runs / game
4.6
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.1
17−11
season record
18−9
11−5
home record
9−4
6−6
away record
9−5
L2
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
7−3
9.1
hits / game
7.8
1.32
home runs / game
0.93
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.57
errors / game
0.26

Rating Trend

CHC · SD · 33 days
Chicago CubsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 5−5
Oct 2, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post
Oct 1, 2025at CHCSD 3 − 0post
Sep 30, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post
Apr 16, 2025at SDSD 4 − 2
Apr 15, 2025at SDCHC 2 − 1
Apr 14, 2025at SDSD 10 − 4
Apr 6, 2025at CHCSD 8 − 7
Apr 5, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 1
Apr 4, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1
May 8, 2024at CHCSD 3 − 0

CHC · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Apr 26at LAD0 − 6L
Apr 25at LAD4 − 12L
Apr 24at LAD6 − 4W
Apr 23vs PHI8 − 7W
Apr 22vs PHI7 − 2W
Apr 21vs PHI7 − 4W
Apr 20vs PHI5 − 1W
Apr 19vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 18vs NYM4 − 2W
Apr 17vs NYM12 − 4W

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 26at ARI7 − 12L
Apr 25at ARI6 − 4W
Apr 23at COL10 − 8W
Apr 22at COL3 − 8L
Apr 21at COL1 − 0W
Apr 19at LAA2 − 1W
Apr 18at LAA4 − 1W
Apr 17at LAA0 − 8L
Apr 16vs SEA5 − 2W
Apr 15vs SEA7 − 6W