bayesRatings

Reds at Pirates

MLB · Sunday, May 3 · 12:35 PM CT · PNC Park · Final CIN 0 – PIT 1
← MLB / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000000000040
PIT00000001150
Team box
CIN·PIT
4
hits
5
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
8
strikeouts
7
115
pitches thrown
99
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Oneil CruzPIT2-4001
Jose TrevinoCIN1-3000
TJ FriedlCIN1-4000
JJ BledayCIN1-2000
Spencer SteerCIN1-3000
Marcell OzunaPIT1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase BurnsCIN7.03017
Tony Santillan (L)CIN1.02120
Braxton AshcraftPIT7.24026
Gregory Soto (W)PIT1.10002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 1 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 48%, PIT 52% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.4 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
8.3
RedsThe matchupPirates
+106Our fair odds−106
4.0Expected runs4.4
+0.02Power rating−0.00
4.3Runs / game5.3
4.9Allowed / game4.4
7.3Hits / game8.9
1.33Home runs / game1.12
4.0Walks drawn / game4.1
20−13Season record18−16
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · PIT chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10648%+10149.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10652%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.4our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more39%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 21 Kstarted
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·PIT
May 2 at PIT
last game
May 2 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
CIN·PIT
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.3
runs / game
5.3
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
20−13
season record
18−16
10−8
home record
10−9
10−5
away record
8−7
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.3
hits / game
8.9
1.33
home runs / game
1.12
4.0
walks drawn / game
4.1
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.42
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

CIN · PIT · 39 days
Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
May 2at PITPIT 17 − 7
May 1at PITPIT 9 − 1
Apr 1at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 31at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 30at CINCIN 2 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at PITCIN 14 − 8
Aug 9, 2025at PITCIN 2 − 1

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 2at PIT7 − 17L
May 1at PIT1 − 9L
Apr 30vs COL6 − 4W
Apr 29vs COL2 − 13L
Apr 28vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 26vs DET3 − 8L
Apr 25vs DET9 − 2W
Apr 24vs DET9 − 8W
Apr 22at TB1 − 6L
Apr 21at TB12 − 6W

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 2vs CIN17 − 7W
May 1vs CIN9 − 1W
Apr 30vs STL5 − 10L
Apr 29vs STL4 − 5L
Apr 28vs STL7 − 11L
Apr 27vs STL2 − 4L
Apr 26at MIL0 − 5L
Apr 25at MIL6 − 3W
Apr 24at MIL6 − 0W
Apr 23at TEX1 − 6L