bayesRatings

Rockies at Reds

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final COL 2 – CIN 7
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL0010100002110
CIN301000037111
Team box
COL·CIN
11
hits
11
1
home runs
2
2
walks
1
12
strikeouts
7
129
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Elly De La CruzCIN3-4214
Edouard JulienCOL3-4112
Spencer SteerCIN1-4112
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-4001
Dane MyersCIN2-3300
TJ RumfieldCOL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Freeland (L)COL5.05414
Chase Burns (W)CIN6.07219

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
COL +5
123456789
largest lead: CIN 5 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 34%, CIN 66% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
CIN by 1.7
Expected score
CIN 5.2 – 3.6 COL
Expected total
8.8
RockiesThe matchupReds
+195Our fair odds−195
3.6Expected runs5.2
−0.53Power rating+0.06
4.1Runs / game4.2
4.4Allowed / game4.2
8.3Hits / game7.1
0.93Home runs / game1.32
3.0Walks drawn / game4.2
13−16Season record18−10
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair33.9%66.1%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+19534%+16637.6%———
CINCincinnati Reds−19566%−19966.6%———
SpreadCIN by 1.7
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 1.7 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more50%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more39%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·CIN
Apr 26 at NYM
last game
Apr 26 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
COL·CIN
−0.53
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.1
runs / game
4.2
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.2
13−16
season record
18−10
7−6
home record
8−7
6−10
away record
10−3
W3
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
7.1
0.93
home runs / game
1.32
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.59
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

COL · CIN · 34 days
Colorado RockiesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 8−2
Jul 13, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jul 12, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 3
Jul 11, 2025at CINCOL 3 − 2
Apr 27, 2025at COLCIN 8 − 1
Apr 26, 2025at COLCIN 6 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at COLCIN 8 − 7
Jul 11, 2024at CINCIN 8 − 1
Jul 10, 2024at CINCOL 6 − 5
Jul 9, 2024at CINCIN 12 − 6
Jul 8, 2024at CINCIN 6 − 0

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 26at NYM3 − 0W
Apr 26at NYM3 − 1W
Apr 24at NYM4 − 3W
Apr 23vs SD8 − 10L
Apr 22vs SD8 − 3W
Apr 21vs SD0 − 1L
Apr 20vs LAD3 − 12L
Apr 19vs LAD9 − 6W
Apr 18vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 17vs LAD1 − 7L

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 26vs DET3 − 8L
Apr 25vs DET9 − 2W
Apr 24vs DET9 − 8W
Apr 22at TB1 − 6L
Apr 21at TB12 − 6W
Apr 20at TB6 − 1W
Apr 19at MIN7 − 4W
Apr 18at MIN5 − 4W
Apr 17at MIN2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SF0 − 3L