bayesRatings

Rockies at Mets

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final COL 4 – NYM 3
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL0000112004101
NYM0100000203110
Team box
COL·NYM
10
hits
11
0
home runs
0
4
walks
0
15
strikeouts
4
112
pitches thrown
156
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brett BatyNYM2-4102
Troy JohnstonCOL1-5002
Jake McCarthyCOL1-3001
Ezequiel TovarCOL2-4000
TJ RumfieldCOL1-3101
Ronny MauricioNYM2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Lorenzen (W)COL7.07103
Antonio Senzatela (S)COL1.20001
Freddy Peralta (L)NYM5.27238

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 1 · COL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 34%, NYM 66% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
NYM by 1.6
Expected score
NYM 5.5 – 3.9 COL
Expected total
9.3
RockiesThe matchupMets
+197Our fair odds−197
3.9Expected runs5.5
−0.62Power rating−0.02
4.2Runs / game3.5
4.8Allowed / game4.5
8.5Hits / game7.6
1.00Home runs / game0.76
2.8Walks drawn / game3.0
10−16Season record9−16
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · NYM chance
Our model fair33.7%66.3%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+19734%+17336.6%———
NYMNew York Mets−19766%−20867.6%———
SpreadNYM by 1.6
COLColorado Rockies+1.6our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 1.6 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 11%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 4 runs: 7%New York Mets by 5 runs: 6%New York Mets by 6 runs: 5%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 3%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 13 runs: 1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more49%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more39%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 4.05 ERA, 10 Kstarted
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·NYM
Apr 23 vs SD
last game
Apr 23 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
COL·NYM
−0.62
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.2
runs / game
3.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
10−16
season record
9−16
7−6
home record
5−7
3−10
away record
4−9
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
2−8
8.5
hits / game
7.6
1.00
home runs / game
0.76
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.62
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

COL · NYM · 30 days
Colorado RockiesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 8−2
Jun 8, 2025at COLNYM 13 − 5
Jun 7, 2025at COLNYM 8 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at COLNYM 4 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 3
May 31, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 2
May 30, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 2
Aug 8, 2024at COLNYM 9 − 1
Aug 7, 2024at COLNYM 5 − 3
Aug 6, 2024at COLCOL 6 − 3
Jul 14, 2024at NYMCOL 8 − 5

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 23vs SD8 − 10L
Apr 22vs SD8 − 3W
Apr 21vs SD0 − 1L
Apr 20vs LAD3 − 12L
Apr 19vs LAD9 − 6W
Apr 18vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 17vs LAD1 − 7L
Apr 16at HOU3 − 2W
Apr 15at HOU1 − 3L
Apr 14at HOU6 − 7L

NYM · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Apr 23vs MIN10 − 8W
Apr 22vs MIN3 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIN3 − 5L
Apr 19at CHC1 − 2L
Apr 18at CHC2 − 4L
Apr 17at CHC4 − 12L
Apr 15at LAD2 − 8L
Apr 14at LAD1 − 2L
Apr 13at LAD0 − 4L
Apr 12vs ATH0 − 1L