bayesRatings

Rockies at Mets

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 3:55 PM CT · Citi Field · Final COL 3 – NYM 0
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL012000000340
NYM000000000061
Team box
COL·NYM
4
hits
6
1
home runs
0
6
walks
3
9
strikeouts
7
131
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-4112
Troy JohnstonCOL1-3001
Carson BengeNYM2-4000
Mickey MoniakCOL1-3000
Edouard JulienCOL1-4100
Marcus SemienNYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase Dollander (W)COL7.05027
Zach Agnos (S)COL1.01000
Kodai Senga (L)NYM2.23331

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · COL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 35%, NYM 65% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
NYM by 1.6
Expected score
NYM 5.5 – 3.9 COL
Expected total
9.3
RockiesThe matchupMets
+188Our fair odds−188
3.9Expected runs5.5
−0.59Power rating−0.04
4.1Runs / game3.5
4.7Allowed / game4.5
8.5Hits / game7.8
0.96Home runs / game0.73
2.9Walks drawn / game2.9
11−16Season record9−17
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · NYM chance
Our model fair34.8%65.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:34 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+18835%————
NYMNew York Mets−18865%+92521.1%———
SpreadNYM by 1.6
COLColorado Rockies+1.6our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 1.6 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 11%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 4 runs: 7%New York Mets by 5 runs: 6%New York Mets by 6 runs: 5%New York Mets by 7 runs: 4%New York Mets by 8 runs: 3%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 13 runs: 1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more49%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more39%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLChase Dollander SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYMKodai Senga RP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 11.91 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·NYM
Apr 26 at NYM
last game
Apr 26 vs COL
same day
days of rest
same day
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
COL·NYM
−0.59
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.1
runs / game
3.5
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
11−16
season record
9−17
7−6
home record
5−8
4−10
away record
4−9
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.5
hits / game
7.8
0.96
home runs / game
0.73
2.9
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.63
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

COL · NYM · 32 days
Colorado RockiesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 8−2
Apr 24at NYMCOL 4 − 3
Jun 8, 2025at COLNYM 13 − 5
Jun 7, 2025at COLNYM 8 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at COLNYM 4 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 3
May 31, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 2
May 30, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 2
Aug 8, 2024at COLNYM 9 − 1
Aug 7, 2024at COLNYM 5 − 3
Aug 6, 2024at COLCOL 6 − 3

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 24at NYM4 − 3W
Apr 23vs SD8 − 10L
Apr 22vs SD8 − 3W
Apr 21vs SD0 − 1L
Apr 20vs LAD3 − 12L
Apr 19vs LAD9 − 6W
Apr 18vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 17vs LAD1 − 7L
Apr 16at HOU3 − 2W
Apr 15at HOU1 − 3L

NYM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Apr 24vs COL3 − 4L
Apr 23vs MIN10 − 8W
Apr 22vs MIN3 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIN3 − 5L
Apr 19at CHC1 − 2L
Apr 18at CHC2 − 4L
Apr 17at CHC4 − 12L
Apr 15at LAD2 − 8L
Apr 14at LAD1 − 2L
Apr 13at LAD0 − 4L