bayesRatings

Rockies at Reds

MLB · Thursday, Apr 30 · 11:40 AM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final COL 4 – CIN 6
← MLB / Apr 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL200000002490
CIN01002102670
Team box
COL·CIN
9
hits
7
1
home runs
2
3
walks
5
9
strikeouts
7
126
pitches thrown
125
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler FreemanCOL2-4112
TJ FriedlCIN1-4112
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-3211
Spencer SteerCIN2-3102
Mickey MoniakCOL1-2001
Kyle KarrosCOL2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Lorenzen (L)COL5.14435
Andrew Abbott (W)CIN6.05225

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +4
COL +4
123456789
largest lead: CIN 4 · COL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 35%, CIN 65% · Updated Apr 30

Expected margin
CIN by 1.5
Expected score
CIN 5.2 – 3.7 COL
Expected total
8.9
RockiesThe matchupReds
+185Our fair odds−185
3.7Expected runs5.2
−0.50Power rating+0.04
4.3Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game7.3
0.97Home runs / game1.33
3.0Walks drawn / game4.1
14−17Season record19−11
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair35.1%64.9%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:40 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+18535%+13442.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−18565%−16161.7%———
SpreadCIN by 1.5
COLColorado Rockies+1.5our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 1.5 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more48%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 11.57 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·CIN
Apr 29 at CIN
last game
Apr 29 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
COL·CIN
−0.50
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.3
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
14−17
season record
19−11
7−6
home record
9−8
7−11
away record
10−3
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.6
hits / game
7.3
0.97
home runs / game
1.33
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.1
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.55
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

COL · CIN · 36 days
Colorado RockiesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 7−3
Apr 29at CINCOL 13 − 2
Apr 28at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 13, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jul 12, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 3
Jul 11, 2025at CINCOL 3 − 2
Apr 27, 2025at COLCIN 8 − 1
Apr 26, 2025at COLCIN 6 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at COLCIN 8 − 7
Jul 11, 2024at CINCIN 8 − 1
Jul 10, 2024at CINCOL 6 − 5

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 29at CIN13 − 2W
Apr 28at CIN2 − 7L
Apr 26at NYM3 − 0W
Apr 26at NYM3 − 1W
Apr 24at NYM4 − 3W
Apr 23vs SD8 − 10L
Apr 22vs SD8 − 3W
Apr 21vs SD0 − 1L
Apr 20vs LAD3 − 12L
Apr 19vs LAD9 − 6W

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 29vs COL2 − 13L
Apr 28vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 26vs DET3 − 8L
Apr 25vs DET9 − 2W
Apr 24vs DET9 − 8W
Apr 22at TB1 − 6L
Apr 21at TB12 − 6W
Apr 20at TB6 − 1W
Apr 19at MIN7 − 4W
Apr 18at MIN5 − 4W