bayesRatings

Rockies at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 29 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final COL 13 – CIN 2
← MLB / Apr 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL30101030513150
CIN0000000022100
Team box
COL·CIN
15
hits
10
2
home runs
1
6
walks
3
11
strikeouts
9
153
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hunter GoodmanCOL3-4423
Brett SullivanCOL3-4103
Will BensonCIN1-1112
Willi CastroCOL2-4201
Brenton DoyleCOL2-5201
Ezequiel TovarCOL1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tomoyuki Sugano (W)COL5.14032
Brandon Williamson (L)CIN3.04444

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +13
COL +13
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · COL 13lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 33%, CIN 67% · Updated Apr 29

Expected margin
CIN by 1.8
Expected score
CIN 5.2 – 3.4 COL
Expected total
8.7
RockiesThe matchupReds
+200Our fair odds−200
3.4Expected runs5.2
−0.55Power rating+0.07
4.0Runs / game4.3
4.5Allowed / game4.1
8.4Hits / game7.2
0.93Home runs / game1.34
2.9Walks drawn / game4.1
13−17Season record19−10
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair33.4%66.6%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+20033%+12943.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−20067%−15460.7%———
SpreadCIN by 1.8
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 1.8 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more51%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 10 Kstarted
CINBrandon Williamson SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.93 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·CIN
Apr 28 at CIN
last game
Apr 28 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
COL·CIN
−0.55
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.0
runs / game
4.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
13−17
season record
19−10
7−6
home record
9−7
6−11
away record
10−3
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
8−2
8.4
hits / game
7.2
0.93
home runs / game
1.34
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.1
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.57
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

COL · CIN · 35 days
Colorado RockiesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 8−2
Apr 28at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 13, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jul 12, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 3
Jul 11, 2025at CINCOL 3 − 2
Apr 27, 2025at COLCIN 8 − 1
Apr 26, 2025at COLCIN 6 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at COLCIN 8 − 7
Jul 11, 2024at CINCIN 8 − 1
Jul 10, 2024at CINCOL 6 − 5
Jul 9, 2024at CINCIN 12 − 6

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 28at CIN2 − 7L
Apr 26at NYM3 − 0W
Apr 26at NYM3 − 1W
Apr 24at NYM4 − 3W
Apr 23vs SD8 − 10L
Apr 22vs SD8 − 3W
Apr 21vs SD0 − 1L
Apr 20vs LAD3 − 12L
Apr 19vs LAD9 − 6W
Apr 18vs LAD4 − 3W

CIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Apr 28vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 26vs DET3 − 8L
Apr 25vs DET9 − 2W
Apr 24vs DET9 − 8W
Apr 22at TB1 − 6L
Apr 21at TB12 − 6W
Apr 20at TB6 − 1W
Apr 19at MIN7 − 4W
Apr 18at MIN5 − 4W
Apr 17at MIN2 − 1W