bayesRatings

Cardinals at Pirates

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final STL 11 – PIT 7
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL01203032011120
PIT0000030317132
Team box
STL·PIT
12
hits
13
2
home runs
3
5
walks
1
10
strikeouts
11
136
pitches thrown
171
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-4213
Nolan GormanSTL1-4113
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4203
Jordan WalkerSTL2-4103
Oneil CruzPIT2-5211
Konnor GriffinPIT2-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Leahy (W)STL5.19307
Braxton Ashcraft (L)PIT4.16637

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +8
STL +8
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · STL 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 47%, PIT 53% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
PIT by 0.7
Expected score
PIT 4.3 – 3.6 STL
Expected total
7.9
CardinalsThe matchupPirates
+113Our fair odds−113
3.6Expected runs4.3
−0.05Power rating−0.01
4.6Runs / game4.7
5.1Allowed / game4.0
7.8Hits / game8.3
1.29Home runs / game1.00
3.7Walks drawn / game3.8
15−13Season record16−13
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11347%+12943.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−11353%−16161.7%———
SpreadPIT by 0.7
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.7our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 0.7 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 18%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 12%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more42%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more31%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 10 Kstarted
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·PIT
Apr 27 at PIT
last game
Apr 27 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
STL·PIT
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.6
runs / game
4.7
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
15−13
season record
16−13
7−8
home record
8−6
8−5
away record
8−7
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.3
1.29
home runs / game
1.00
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.50
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

STL · PIT · 34 days
St. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Apr 27at PITSTL 4 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2025at STLPIT 2 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at STLPIT 8 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 6
Jul 2, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 0
Jul 1, 2025at PITPIT 1 − 0
Jun 30, 2025at PITPIT 7 − 0
May 7, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 0
May 6, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 1

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 27at PIT4 − 2W
Apr 26vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 25vs SEA9 − 11L
Apr 24vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 22at MIA1 − 4L
Apr 21at MIA5 − 3W
Apr 20at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 19at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 18at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 17at HOU9 − 4W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 27vs STL2 − 4L
Apr 26at MIL0 − 5L
Apr 25at MIL6 − 3W
Apr 24at MIL6 − 0W
Apr 23at TEX1 − 6L
Apr 22at TEX8 − 4W
Apr 21at TEX1 − 5L
Apr 19vs TB6 − 3W
Apr 18vs TB7 − 8L
Apr 17vs TB5 − 1W