bayesRatings

Reds at Pirates

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 5:45 PM CT · PNC Park · Final CIN 1 – PIT 9
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000001000130
PIT102141009121
Team box
CIN·PIT
3
hits
12
0
home runs
4
1
walks
8
8
strikeouts
5
175
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Henry DavisPIT2-3323
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-4212
Marcell OzunaPIT1-4112
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-5101
Nick GonzalesPIT3-4100
TJ FriedlCIN2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady Singer (L)CIN3.17421
Mitch Keller (W)PIT7.03116

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +8
CIN +8
123456789
largest lead: PIT 8 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 50%, PIT 50% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.0 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
8.0
RedsThe matchupPirates
+100Our fair odds−100
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.05Power rating−0.04
4.3Runs / game4.8
4.4Allowed / game4.4
7.3Hits / game8.5
1.35Home runs / game1.06
4.1Walks drawn / game3.8
20−11Season record16−16
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · PIT chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10050%+11446.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10050%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more36%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more25%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 6 Kstarted
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·PIT
Apr 30 vs COL
last game
Apr 30 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
CIN·PIT
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.3
runs / game
4.8
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
20−11
season record
16−16
10−8
home record
8−9
10−3
away record
8−7
W1
streak
L5
7−3
last 10
3−7
7.3
hits / game
8.5
1.35
home runs / game
1.06
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.45
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

CIN · PIT · 37 days
Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Apr 1at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 31at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 30at CINCIN 2 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at PITCIN 14 − 8
Aug 9, 2025at PITCIN 2 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 2
Aug 7, 2025at PITPIT 7 − 0

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 30vs COL6 − 4W
Apr 29vs COL2 − 13L
Apr 28vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 26vs DET3 − 8L
Apr 25vs DET9 − 2W
Apr 24vs DET9 − 8W
Apr 22at TB1 − 6L
Apr 21at TB12 − 6W
Apr 20at TB6 − 1W
Apr 19at MIN7 − 4W

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Apr 30vs STL5 − 10L
Apr 29vs STL4 − 5L
Apr 28vs STL7 − 11L
Apr 27vs STL2 − 4L
Apr 26at MIL0 − 5L
Apr 25at MIL6 − 3W
Apr 24at MIL6 − 0W
Apr 23at TEX1 − 6L
Apr 22at TEX8 − 4W
Apr 21at TEX1 − 5L