bayesRatings

Cardinals at Pirates

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 29 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final STL 5 – PIT 4
← MLB / Apr 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL001020200562
PIT000010210490
Team box
STL·PIT
6
hits
9
1
home runs
1
6
walks
4
11
strikeouts
9
170
pitches thrown
151
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BurlesonSTL1-4112
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-3111
Nick YorkePIT1-2002
Ivan HerreraSTL2-4201
JJ WetherholtSTL2-5001
Joey BartPIT2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andre Pallante (W)STL6.05106
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.01001
Bubba Chandler (L)PIT5.03346

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · STL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 47%, PIT 53% · Updated Apr 29

Expected margin
PIT by 0.5
Expected score
PIT 4.3 – 3.8 STL
Expected total
8.2
CardinalsThe matchupPirates
+111Our fair odds−111
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.04Power rating−0.02
4.8Runs / game4.8
5.1Allowed / game4.2
7.9Hits / game8.5
1.31Home runs / game1.07
3.7Walks drawn / game3.7
16−13Season record16−14
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11147%+10947.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−11153%−13156.7%———
SpreadPIT by 0.5
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.5our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 0.5 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more40%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.87 ERA, 15 Kstarted
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.87 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·PIT
Apr 28 at PIT
last game
Apr 28 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
STL·PIT
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.8
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.2
16−13
season record
16−14
7−8
home record
8−7
9−5
away record
8−7
W2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.5
1.31
home runs / game
1.07
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
6.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.48
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

STL · PIT · 35 days
St. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Apr 28at PITSTL 11 − 7
Apr 27at PITSTL 4 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2025at STLPIT 2 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at STLPIT 8 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 6
Jul 2, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 0
Jul 1, 2025at PITPIT 1 − 0
Jun 30, 2025at PITPIT 7 − 0
May 7, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 0

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 28at PIT11 − 7W
Apr 27at PIT4 − 2W
Apr 26vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 25vs SEA9 − 11L
Apr 24vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 22at MIA1 − 4L
Apr 21at MIA5 − 3W
Apr 20at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 19at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 18at HOU7 − 5W

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 28vs STL7 − 11L
Apr 27vs STL2 − 4L
Apr 26at MIL0 − 5L
Apr 25at MIL6 − 3W
Apr 24at MIL6 − 0W
Apr 23at TEX1 − 6L
Apr 22at TEX8 − 4W
Apr 21at TEX1 − 5L
Apr 19vs TB6 − 3W
Apr 18vs TB7 − 8L