bayesRatings

Reds at Pirates

MLB · Saturday, May 2 · 3:05 PM CT · PNC Park · Final CIN 7 – PIT 17
← MLB / May 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN2100120107110
PIT5505000217190
Team box
CIN·PIT
11
hits
19
2
home runs
0
2
walks
11
13
strikeouts
9
211
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Marcell OzunaPIT3-5303
Konnor GriffinPIT4-5102
JJ BledayCIN2-4312
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-4003
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-4303
Spencer HorwitzPIT2-5003
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Rhett Lowder (L)CIN1.15841
Carmen Mlodzinski (W)PIT5.285210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +12
CIN +12
123456789
largest lead: PIT 12 · CIN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 49%, PIT 51% · Updated May 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.2 – 3.9 CIN
Expected total
8.0
RedsThe matchupPirates
+103Our fair odds−103
3.9Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating−0.02
4.2Runs / game4.9
4.5Allowed / game4.3
7.2Hits / game8.6
1.31Home runs / game1.15
4.0Walks drawn / game3.9
20−12Season record17−16
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · PIT chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10349%+11446.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10351%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more38%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more27%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 14 Kstarted
PITCarmen Mlodzinski RP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·PIT
May 1 at PIT
last game
May 1 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
CIN·PIT
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.2
runs / game
4.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
20−12
season record
17−16
10−8
home record
9−9
10−4
away record
8−7
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.2
hits / game
8.6
1.31
home runs / game
1.15
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.9
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.44
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

CIN · PIT · 38 days
Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
May 1at PITPIT 9 − 1
Apr 1at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 31at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 30at CINCIN 2 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at PITCIN 14 − 8
Aug 9, 2025at PITCIN 2 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 2

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 1at PIT1 − 9L
Apr 30vs COL6 − 4W
Apr 29vs COL2 − 13L
Apr 28vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 26vs DET3 − 8L
Apr 25vs DET9 − 2W
Apr 24vs DET9 − 8W
Apr 22at TB1 − 6L
Apr 21at TB12 − 6W
Apr 20at TB6 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 1vs CIN9 − 1W
Apr 30vs STL5 − 10L
Apr 29vs STL4 − 5L
Apr 28vs STL7 − 11L
Apr 27vs STL2 − 4L
Apr 26at MIL0 − 5L
Apr 25at MIL6 − 3W
Apr 24at MIL6 − 0W
Apr 23at TEX1 − 6L
Apr 22at TEX8 − 4W