bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Cubs

MLB · Sunday, May 3 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final ARI 4 – CHC 8
← MLB / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI020000002470
CHC012030208120
Team box
ARI·CHC
7
hits
12
2
home runs
1
3
walks
6
8
strikeouts
8
156
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael BuschCHC2-3104
Moises BallesterosCHC2-4212
Adrian Del CastilloARI1-1112
Gabriel MorenoARI1-4112
Carson KellyCHC2-4002
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI4.18635
Matthew Boyd (W)CHC6.04215

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +6
ARI +6
123456789
largest lead: CHC 6 · ARI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 43%, CHC 57% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
CHC by 0.7
Expected score
CHC 5.0 – 4.4 ARI
Expected total
9.4
DiamondbacksThe matchupCubs
+135Our fair odds−135
4.4Expected runs5.0
−0.00Power rating+0.22
4.6Runs / game5.4
5.4Allowed / game4.2
8.3Hits / game8.8
1.00Home runs / game1.30
2.6Walks drawn / game4.5
16−16Season record21−12
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · CHC chance
Our model fair42.6%57.4%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+13543%+12943.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13557%−16161.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.7
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.7our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.7 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more32%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 9.20 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.02 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·CHC
May 2 at CHC
last game
May 2 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
ARI·CHC
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
4.6
runs / game
5.4
5.4
runs allowed / game
4.2
16−16
season record
21−12
9−6
home record
13−5
7−10
away record
8−7
L3
streak
W4
3−7
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
8.8
1.00
home runs / game
1.30
2.6
walks drawn / game
4.5
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.56
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

ARI · CHC · 39 days
Arizona DiamondbacksChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 7−3
May 2at CHCCHC 2 − 0
May 1at CHCCHC 6 − 5
Apr 20, 2025at CHCARI 3 − 2
Apr 19, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 2
Apr 18, 2025at CHCCHC 13 − 11
Mar 30, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 6
Mar 29, 2025at ARICHC 4 − 3
Mar 28, 2025at ARIARI 8 − 1
Mar 27, 2025at ARICHC 10 − 6
Jul 21, 2024at CHCCHC 2 − 1

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
May 2at CHC0 − 2L
May 1at CHC5 − 6L
Apr 30at MIL1 − 13L
Apr 29at MIL6 − 2W
Apr 28at MIL2 − 13L
Apr 26vs SD12 − 7W
Apr 25vs SD4 − 6L
Apr 23vs CHW1 − 4L
Apr 22vs CHW11 − 7W
Apr 21vs CHW5 − 11L

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
May 2vs ARI2 − 0W
May 1vs ARI6 − 5W
Apr 29at SD5 − 4W
Apr 28at SD8 − 3W
Apr 27at SD7 − 9L
Apr 26at LAD0 − 6L
Apr 25at LAD4 − 12L
Apr 24at LAD6 − 4W
Apr 23vs PHI8 − 7W
Apr 22vs PHI7 − 2W