bayesRatings

Pirates at Diamondbacks

MLB · Thursday, May 7 · 2:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final PIT 4 – ARI 2
← MLB / May 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT100021000470
ARI101000000251
Team box
PIT·ARI
7
hits
5
2
home runs
1
3
walks
4
8
strikeouts
6
133
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LowePIT3-5211
Corbin CarrollARI2-4111
Joey BartPIT2-4111
Adrian Del CastilloARI1-3001
Ryan O'HearnPIT1-4001
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch Keller (W)PIT6.04224
Gregory Soto (S)PIT1.00001
Zac Gallen (L)ARI6.06425

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 1 · PIT 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 48%, ARI 52% · Updated May 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.8 – 4.8 ARI
Expected total
9.6
PiratesThe matchupDiamondbacks
+109Our fair odds−109
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.00Power rating−0.00
4.9Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game5.2
8.5Hits / game8.1
1.05Home runs / game0.97
4.0Walks drawn / game2.7
20−17Season record17−18
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · ARI chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10948%−10751.8%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10952%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.1our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byARI wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more38%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 17 Kstarted
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 5.84 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·ARI
May 6 at ARI
last game
May 6 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
PIT·ARI
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.9
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.2
20−17
season record
17−18
11−9
home record
10−7
9−8
away record
7−11
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.5
hits / game
8.1
1.05
home runs / game
0.97
4.0
walks drawn / game
2.7
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.57
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

PIT · ARI · 43 days
Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 4−6
May 6at ARIPIT 1 − 0
May 5at ARIARI 9 − 0
Jul 27, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 0
Jul 26, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 0
Jul 25, 2025at PITARI 1 − 0
May 28, 2025at ARIPIT 10 − 1
May 27, 2025at ARIPIT 9 − 6
May 26, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 0
Aug 4, 2024at PITARI 6 − 5
Aug 3, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 2

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 6at ARI1 − 0W
May 5at ARI0 − 9L
May 3vs CIN1 − 0W
May 2vs CIN17 − 7W
May 1vs CIN9 − 1W
Apr 30vs STL5 − 10L
Apr 29vs STL4 − 5L
Apr 28vs STL7 − 11L
Apr 27vs STL2 − 4L
Apr 26at MIL0 − 5L

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 6vs PIT0 − 1L
May 5vs PIT9 − 0W
May 3at CHC4 − 8L
May 2at CHC0 − 2L
May 1at CHC5 − 6L
Apr 30at MIL1 − 13L
Apr 29at MIL6 − 2W
Apr 28at MIL2 − 13L
Apr 26vs SD12 − 7W
Apr 25vs SD4 − 6L