bayesRatings

Pirates at Diamondbacks

MLB · Wednesday, May 6 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final PIT 1 – ARI 0
← MLB / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT100000000170
ARI000000000020
Team box
PIT·ARI
7
hits
2
1
home runs
0
2
walks
1
7
strikeouts
8
112
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LowePIT2-4111
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-4000
Nolan ArenadoARI1-3000
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI1-3000
Marcell OzunaPIT1-4000
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul Skenes (W)PIT8.02007
Gregory Soto (S)PIT1.00011
Michael Soroka (L)ARI6.17126

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · PIT 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 47%, ARI 53% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 5.0 – 4.9 ARI
Expected total
9.8
PiratesThe matchupDiamondbacks
+111Our fair odds−111
5.0Expected runs4.9
−0.02Power rating+0.00
5.0Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game5.3
8.6Hits / game8.3
1.06Home runs / game1.00
4.1Walks drawn / game2.8
19−17Season record17−17
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · ARI chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+11147%−12655.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11153%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.1our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byARI wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more38%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 21 Kstarted
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·ARI
May 5 at ARI
last game
May 5 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
PIT·ARI
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
5.0
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.3
19−17
season record
17−17
11−9
home record
10−6
8−8
away record
7−11
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
8.3
1.06
home runs / game
1.00
4.1
walks drawn / game
2.8
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.58
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

PIT · ARI · 42 days
Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
May 5at ARIARI 9 − 0
Jul 27, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 0
Jul 26, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 0
Jul 25, 2025at PITARI 1 − 0
May 28, 2025at ARIPIT 10 − 1
May 27, 2025at ARIPIT 9 − 6
May 26, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 0
Aug 4, 2024at PITARI 6 − 5
Aug 3, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 2
Aug 2, 2024at PITARI 9 − 8

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 5at ARI0 − 9L
May 3vs CIN1 − 0W
May 2vs CIN17 − 7W
May 1vs CIN9 − 1W
Apr 30vs STL5 − 10L
Apr 29vs STL4 − 5L
Apr 28vs STL7 − 11L
Apr 27vs STL2 − 4L
Apr 26at MIL0 − 5L
Apr 25at MIL6 − 3W

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 5vs PIT9 − 0W
May 3at CHC4 − 8L
May 2at CHC0 − 2L
May 1at CHC5 − 6L
Apr 30at MIL1 − 13L
Apr 29at MIL6 − 2W
Apr 28at MIL2 − 13L
Apr 26vs SD12 − 7W
Apr 25vs SD4 − 6L
Apr 23vs CHW1 − 4L