bayesRatings

Nationals at Mets

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 29 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final WSH 14 – NYM 2
← MLB / Apr 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH20070130114150
NYM0010100002100
Team box
WSH·NYM
15
hits
10
2
home runs
1
6
walks
2
15
strikeouts
12
137
pitches thrown
203
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Curtis MeadWSH4-5412
Brady HouseWSH1-5114
Juan SotoNYM3-5111
CJ AbramsWSH3-4002
James WoodWSH2-5303
Jacob YoungWSH1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH6.082210
David Peterson (L)NYM3.25735

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +12
WSH +12
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · WSH 12lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 43%, NYM 57% · Updated Apr 29

Expected margin
NYM by 0.8
Expected score
NYM 5.2 – 4.4 WSH
Expected total
9.6
NationalsThe matchupMets
+131Our fair odds−131
4.4Expected runs5.2
−0.24Power rating−0.05
5.2Runs / game3.4
6.0Allowed / game4.2
8.3Hits / game7.5
1.13Home runs / game0.76
3.7Walks drawn / game3.0
13−17Season record10−19
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NYM chance
Our model fair43.2%56.8%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+13143%+12943.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−13157%−16161.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.8
WSHWashington Nationals+0.8our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.8 expected
Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more43%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more33%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 6.10 ERA, 17 Kstarted
NYMDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 8.79 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NYM
Apr 28 at NYM
last game
Apr 28 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
WSH·NYM
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
5.2
runs / game
3.4
6.0
runs allowed / game
4.2
13−17
season record
10−19
3−10
home record
6−10
10−7
away record
4−9
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
7.5
1.13
home runs / game
0.76
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.93
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

WSH · NYM · 35 days
Washington NationalsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 6−4
Apr 28at NYMNYM 8 − 0
Sep 21, 2025at NYMWSH 3 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at NYMWSH 5 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 21, 2025at WSHWSH 9 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at WSHNYM 8 − 1
Jun 12, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 0
Jun 10, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 4

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 28at NYM0 − 8L
Apr 26at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 25at CHW6 − 3W
Apr 24at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 23vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 22vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 21vs ATL11 − 4W
Apr 20vs ATL4 − 9L
Apr 19vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 18vs SF6 − 7L

NYM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 28vs WSH8 − 0W
Apr 26vs COL0 − 3L
Apr 26vs COL1 − 3L
Apr 24vs COL3 − 4L
Apr 23vs MIN10 − 8W
Apr 22vs MIN3 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIN3 − 5L
Apr 19at CHC1 − 2L
Apr 18at CHC2 − 4L
Apr 17at CHC4 − 12L