bayesRatings

Nationals at White Sox

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final WSH 4 – CHW 5
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH010020010461
CHW00010121582
Team box
WSH·CHW
6
hits
8
1
home runs
1
5
walks
5
6
strikeouts
3
131
pitches thrown
144
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brady HouseWSH1-4112
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-3111
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH2-3101
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-2101
Miguel VargasCHW2-4100
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
PJ PoulinWSH1.21001
Riley Cornelio (L)WSH2.02241
Bryan HudsonCHW1.01011
Jordan Leasure (W)CHW1.01101
Seranthony Dominguez (S)CHW1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 1 · WSH 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 49%, CHW 51% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.8 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
9.7
NationalsThe matchupWhite Sox
+105Our fair odds−105
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.23Power rating−0.27
5.5Runs / game4.2
6.2Allowed / game5.2
8.8Hits / game7.4
1.23Home runs / game1.28
3.6Walks drawn / game4.0
11−15Season record10−15
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · CHW chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+10549%+10548.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−10551%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington NationalsPKour margin————
CHWChicago White SoxPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more37%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHPJ Poulin RP · last 3 starts: 2.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 2 Kstarted
CHWBryan Hudson RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·CHW
Apr 23 vs ATL
last game
Apr 23 at ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
WSH·CHW
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.27
5.5
runs / game
4.2
6.2
runs allowed / game
5.2
11−15
season record
10−15
3−10
home record
3−6
8−5
away record
7−9
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
7.4
1.23
home runs / game
1.28
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.92
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

WSH · CHW · 30 days
Washington NationalsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHW 5−4
Sep 28, 2025at WSHCHW 8 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 5
Sep 26, 2025at WSHCHW 10 − 9
May 15, 2024at CHWCHW 2 − 0
May 14, 2024at CHWCHW 4 − 0
May 14, 2024at CHWWSH 6 − 3
Sep 20, 2023at WSHWSH 13 − 3
Sep 19, 2023at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Sep 18, 2023at WSHCHW 6 − 1

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 23vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 22vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 21vs ATL11 − 4W
Apr 20vs ATL4 − 9L
Apr 19vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 18vs SF6 − 7L
Apr 17vs SF5 − 10L
Apr 16at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 15at PIT0 − 2L
Apr 14at PIT5 − 4W

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 23at ARI4 − 1W
Apr 22at ARI7 − 11L
Apr 21at ARI11 − 5W
Apr 19at ATH7 − 4W
Apr 18at ATH6 − 7L
Apr 17at ATH9 − 2W
Apr 16vs TB3 − 5L
Apr 15vs TB3 − 8L
Apr 14vs TB5 − 8L
Apr 12at KC6 − 5W