bayesRatings

Nationals at Mets

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final WSH 0 – NYM 8
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000000000031
NYM10070000860
Team box
WSH·NYM
3
hits
6
0
home runs
2
2
walks
5
11
strikeouts
3
143
pitches thrown
133
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Juan SotoNYM1-4112
Bo BichetteNYM1-2112
Carson BengeNYM2-4102
Marcus SemienNYM0-3101
MJ MelendezNYM1-3100
Ronny MauricioNYM1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Littell (L)WSH3.25431
Clay Holmes (W)NYM6.03016

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +8
WSH +8
123456789
largest lead: NYM 8 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 44%, NYM 56% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
NYM by 0.6
Expected score
NYM 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
Expected total
9.5
NationalsThe matchupMets
+127Our fair odds−127
4.5Expected runs5.0
−0.22Power rating−0.06
5.4Runs / game3.3
5.9Allowed / game4.4
8.4Hits / game7.6
1.17Home runs / game0.71
3.8Walks drawn / game2.9
13−16Season record9−19
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NYM chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12744%+15239.6%———
NYMNew York Mets−12756%−18364.6%———
SpreadNYM by 0.6
WSHWashington Nationals+0.6our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.6 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more41%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more31%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHZack Littell SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 10.20 ERA, 8 Kstarted
NYMClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NYM
Apr 26 at CHW
last game
Apr 26 vs COL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
WSH·NYM
−0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.4
runs / game
3.3
5.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
13−16
season record
9−19
3−10
home record
5−10
10−6
away record
4−9
W2
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
2−8
8.4
hits / game
7.6
1.17
home runs / game
0.71
3.8
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.93
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

WSH · NYM · 34 days
Washington NationalsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 6−4
Sep 21, 2025at NYMWSH 3 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at NYMWSH 5 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 21, 2025at WSHWSH 9 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at WSHNYM 8 − 1
Jun 12, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 0
Jun 10, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 4
Apr 28, 2025at WSHNYM 19 − 5

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 26at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 25at CHW6 − 3W
Apr 24at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 23vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 22vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 21vs ATL11 − 4W
Apr 20vs ATL4 − 9L
Apr 19vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 18vs SF6 − 7L
Apr 17vs SF5 − 10L

NYM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Apr 26vs COL0 − 3L
Apr 26vs COL1 − 3L
Apr 24vs COL3 − 4L
Apr 23vs MIN10 − 8W
Apr 22vs MIN3 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIN3 − 5L
Apr 19at CHC1 − 2L
Apr 18at CHC2 − 4L
Apr 17at CHC4 − 12L
Apr 15at LAD2 − 8L